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A Novel Dual-Scale Deep Belief Network Method for Daily Urban Water Demand Forecasting

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  • Yuebing Xu

    (College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China
    Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Information Processing and Application, College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China)

  • Jing Zhang

    (College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China)

  • Zuqiang Long

    (Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Information Processing and Application, College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421002, China)

  • Yan Chen

    (College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China)

Abstract

Water demand forecasting applies data supports for the scheduling and decision-making of urban water supply systems. In this study, a new dual-scale deep belief network (DSDBN) approach for daily urban water demand forecasting was proposed. Original daily water demand time series was decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residue component with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) technique. Stochastic and deterministic terms were reconstructed through analyzing the frequency characteristics of IMFs and residue using generalized Fourier transform. The deep belief network (DBN) model was used for prediction using the two feature terms. The outputs of the double DBNs are summed as the final forecasting results. Historical daily water demand datasets from an urban waterworks in Zhuzhou, China, were investigated by the proposed DSDBN model. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE), correlation coefficient (CC) and determination coefficient (DC) were used as evaluation criteria. The results were compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, feed forward neural network (FFNN) model, support vector regression (SVR) model, EEMD and their combinations, and single DBN model. The results obtained in the test period indicate that the proposed model has the smallest MAPE and NRMSE values of 1.291099 and 0.016625, respectively, and the largest CC and DC values of 0.976528 and 0.953512, respectively. Therefore, the proposed DSDBN method is a useful tool for daily urban water demand forecasting and outperforms other models in common use.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuebing Xu & Jing Zhang & Zuqiang Long & Yan Chen, 2018. "A Novel Dual-Scale Deep Belief Network Method for Daily Urban Water Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1068-:d:143364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Caspar V. C. Geelen & Doekle R. Yntema & Jaap Molenaar & Karel J. Keesman, 2021. "Burst Detection by Water Demand Nowcasting Based on Exogenous Sensors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(4), pages 1183-1196, March.
    3. Bokde, Neeraj Dhanraj & Tranberg, Bo & Andresen, Gorm Bruun, 2021. "Short-term CO2 emissions forecasting based on decomposition approaches and its impact on electricity market scheduling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Xin Liu & Xuefeng Sang & Jiaxuan Chang & Yang Zheng, 2021. "Multi-Model Coupling Water Demand Prediction Optimization Method for Megacities Based on Time Series Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4021-4041, September.
    5. Yang, Weifei & Xiao, Changlai & Zhang, Zhihao & Liang, Xiujuan, 2022. "Identification of the formation temperature field of the southern Songliao Basin, China based on a deep belief network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 32-42.
    6. Jing Liu & Xin-Lei Zhou & Lu-Qi Zhang & Yue-Ping Xu, 2023. "Forecasting Short-term Water Demands with an Ensemble Deep Learning Model for a Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(8), pages 2991-3012, June.

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