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Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in the North Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method

Author

Listed:
  • Christy Pérez-Albornoz

    (Department of Renewable Energy, Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatan (CICY), Mérida 97205, Mexico
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ángel Hernández-Gómez

    (School of Sciences, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí (UASLP), San Luis Potosi 78000, Mexico
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Victor Ramirez

    (Department of Renewable Energy, Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatan (CICY), Mérida 97205, Mexico
    Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT), Ciudad de México 03940, Mexico)

  • Damien Guilbert

    (Group of Research in Electrical Engineering of Nancy (GREEN), Université de Lorraine, F-54000 Nancy, France)

Abstract

Installation of new wind farms in areas such as the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula is of vital importance to face the local energy demand. For the proper functioning of these facilities it is important to perform wind data analysis, the data having been collected by anemometers, and to consider the particular characteristics of the studied area. However, despite the great development of anemometers, forecasting methods are necessary for the optimal harvesting of wind energy. For this reason, this study focuses on developing an enhanced wind forecasting method that can be applied to wind data from the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula (in general, any type of data). Thus, strategies can be established to generate a greater amount of energy from the wind farms, which supports the local economy of this area. Four variants have been developed based on the traditional double and single exponential methods. Furthermore, these methods were compared to the experimental data to obtain the optimal forecasting method for the Yucatan area. The forecasting method with the highest performance has obtained an average relative error of 7.9510% and an average mean error of 0.3860 m/s.

Suggested Citation

  • Christy Pérez-Albornoz & Ángel Hernández-Gómez & Victor Ramirez & Damien Guilbert, 2023. "Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in the North Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jcltec:v:5:y:2023:i:2:p:37-765:d:1162696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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