IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v216y2023ics096014812301011x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Offshore wind speed assessment with statistical and attention-based neural network methods based on STL decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Li
  • Ou, Yanxia
  • Cai, Jingjing
  • Wang, Jin
  • Fu, Yang
  • Bian, Xiaoyan

Abstract

This work proposes a novel offshore wind speed prediction approach by combining statistical method and attention-based neural network with seasonal-trend decomposition procedure with loess (STL). STL is utilized to decompose the processed data into season, trend and residual terms. Then, an attention-based long short-term memory neural network model (AT-LSTM), possessing the advantages of generalization and high-dimensional function approximation, is modeled to train season and residual terms with obvious volatility characteristics. And a hybrid model of auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and LSTM is applied to predict the linear and nonlinear sequences in trend term with relatively gentle feature, yielding the proposed STL-AR-LSTM-ATLSTM model. Wherein, the proposed method is verified through sufficient pre-judgment experiments on season, trend and residual terms, as well as detailed multi-model comparison experiments. Finally, microcosmic prediction results and predicted statistical frequency distributions indicate that the new model has better prediction effect on offshore wind, compared to ARIMA, AT-LSTM, ARIMA-AT-LSTM models. Meanwhile, the presented model can reduce the lag problem of predicted values and perform well in the prediction of extreme values.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Li & Ou, Yanxia & Cai, Jingjing & Wang, Jin & Fu, Yang & Bian, Xiaoyan, 2023. "Offshore wind speed assessment with statistical and attention-based neural network methods based on STL decomposition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:216:y:2023:i:c:s096014812301011x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.119097
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812301011X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119097?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camilo Carrillo & José Cidrás & Eloy Díaz-Dorado & Andrés Felipe Obando-Montaño, 2014. "An Approach to Determine the Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Analysis: The Case of Galicia (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Benítez, José M., 2016. "Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box–Cox transformation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 303-312.
    3. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
    5. Geng, Xiulin & Xu, Lingyu & He, Xiaoyu & Yu, Jie, 2021. "Graph optimization neural network with spatio-temporal correlation learning for multi-node offshore wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1014-1025.
    6. Wang, Jianzhou & Du, Pei & Niu, Tong & Yang, Wendong, 2017. "A novel hybrid system based on a new proposed algorithm—Multi-Objective Whale Optimization Algorithm for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 344-360.
    7. Yang, Shaobo & Deng, Zegui & Li, Xingfei & Zheng, Chongwei & Xi, Lintong & Zhuang, Jucheng & Zhang, Zhenquan & Zhang, Zhiyou, 2021. "A novel hybrid model based on STL decomposition and one-dimensional convolutional neural networks with positional encoding for significant wave height forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 531-543.
    8. Dong, Yao & Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, He & Shi, Xiaomeng, 2013. "Intelligent optimized wind resource assessment and wind turbines selection in Huitengxile of Inner Mongolia, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 239-253.
    9. Hu, Weicheng & Yang, Qingshan & Chen, Hua-Peng & Yuan, Ziting & Li, Chen & Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "New hybrid approach for short-term wind speed predictions based on preprocessing algorithm and optimization theory," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2174-2186.
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Wang, Shiqi & Yang, Wendong, 2019. "A novel non-linear combination system for short-term wind speed forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1172-1192.
    11. Niu, Tong & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Kequan & Du, Pei, 2018. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on optimal feature selection and a modified bat algorithm with the cognition strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 213-229.
    12. Wang, Jujie & Li, Yaning, 2018. "Multi-step ahead wind speed prediction based on optimal feature extraction, long short term memory neural network and error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 429-443.
    13. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    14. Feng, Cong & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Zhang, Jie, 2017. "A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1245-1257.
    15. Jung, Jaesung & Tam, Kwa-Sur, 2013. "A frequency domain approach to characterize and analyze wind speed patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 435-443.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Li, Jiale & Song, Zihao & Wang, Xuefei & Wang, Yanru & Jia, Yaya, 2022. "A novel offshore wind farm typhoon wind speed prediction model based on PSO–Bi-LSTM improved by VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    4. Ines Würth & Laura Valldecabres & Elliot Simon & Corinna Möhrlen & Bahri Uzunoğlu & Ciaran Gilbert & Gregor Giebel & David Schlipf & Anton Kaifel, 2019. "Minute-Scale Forecasting of Wind Power—Results from the Collaborative Workshop of IEA Wind Task 32 and 36," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-30, February.
    5. Liu, Ling & Wang, Jujie, 2021. "Super multi-step wind speed forecasting system with training set extension and horizontal–vertical integration neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    6. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    7. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Sareen, Karan & Panigrahi, Bijaya Ketan & Shikhola, Tushar & Sharma, Rajneesh, 2023. "An imputation and decomposition algorithms based integrated approach with bidirectional LSTM neural network for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    10. Li, Ke & Shen, Ruifang & Wang, Zhenguo & Yan, Bowen & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong, 2023. "An efficient wind speed prediction method based on a deep neural network without future information leakage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    11. Shengqi Zhang & Yateendra Mishra & Bei Yuan & Jianfeng Zhao & Mohammad Shahidehpour, 2018. "Primary Frequency Controller with Prediction-Based Droop Coefficient for Wind-Storage Systems under Spot Market Rules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Luis M. López-Manrique & E. V. Macias-Melo & O. May Tzuc & A. Bassam & K. M. Aguilar-Castro & I. Hernández-Pérez, 2018. "Assessment of Resource and Forecast Modeling of Wind Speed through An Evolutionary Programming Approach for the North of Tehuantepec Isthmus (Cuauhtemotzin, Mexico)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Zhang, Yagang & Zhao, Yunpeng & Shen, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Jinghui, 2022. "A comprehensive wind speed prediction system based on Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    14. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    15. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    16. Khasanzoda, Nasrullo & Zicmane, Inga & Beryozkina, Svetlana & Safaraliev, Murodbek & Sultonov, Sherkhon & Kirgizov, Alifbek, 2022. "Regression model for predicting the speed of wind flows for energy needs based on fuzzy logic," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 723-731.
    17. Ana Lagos & Joaquín E. Caicedo & Gustavo Coria & Andrés Romero Quete & Maximiliano Martínez & Gastón Suvire & Jesús Riquelme, 2022. "State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-40, September.
    18. Christy Pérez-Albornoz & Ángel Hernández-Gómez & Victor Ramirez & Damien Guilbert, 2023. "Forecast Optimization of Wind Speed in the North Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Using the Single and Double Exponential Method," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Soukissian, Takvor H. & Karathanasi, Flora E., 2017. "On the selection of bivariate parametric models for wind data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 280-304.
    20. Li, Chaoshun & Xiao, Zhengguang & Xia, Xin & Zou, Wen & Zhang, Chu, 2018. "A hybrid model based on synchronous optimisation for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 131-144.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:216:y:2023:i:c:s096014812301011x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.