IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i5p610-d802395.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maximum Entropy Niche-Based Modeling for Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitats of a Traditional Medicinal Plant ( Rheum nanum ) in Asia under Climate Change Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xu

    (Humanities and Social Sciences, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Shuaimeng Zhu

    (School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Tianli Yang

    (College of Forestry, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Jimin Cheng

    (Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Jingwei Jin

    (Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

Abstract

Rheum nanum , a perennial herb, is a famous traditional Chinese medicinal plant that has great value in modern medicine. In order to determine the potential distribution of R . nanum in Asia, we specifically developed the potential distribution maps for three periods (current, 2050s: 2041–2060, and 2070s: 2061–2080) using MaxEnt and ArcGIS, and these were based on the current and future climate data under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). To predict the potential impacts of global warming, we measured the area of suitable habitats, habitat suitability changes, and habitat core changes. We found that bio16 (i.e., the precipitation of the wettest quarter) and bio1 (i.e., the annual mean temperature) were the most important climate factors that influenced the distribution of R . nanum . The areas of high suitable habitats (HH) and middle suitable habitats (MH) in the current period were 156,284.7 ± 0.99 km 2 and 361,875.0 ± 3.61 km 2 , respectively. The areas of HH and MH in 2070RCP6.0 were 27,309.0 ± 0.35 km 2 and 123,750 ± 2.36 km 2 , respectively. The ranges of 82.0–90.3° E, 43.8–46.5° N were the mostly degraded areas of the 2050s and 2070s, and RCP6.0 had a larger decrease in habitable area than that found in RCP2.6. All the HH cores shifted south, and the shift distance of HH in 2070RCP6.0 was 115.65 km. This study provides a feasible approach for efficiently utilizing low-number occurrences, and presents an important attempt at predicting the potential distribution of species based on a small sample size. This may improve our understanding of the impacts of global warming on plant distribution and could be useful for relevant agricultural decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xu & Shuaimeng Zhu & Tianli Yang & Jimin Cheng & Jingwei Jin, 2022. "Maximum Entropy Niche-Based Modeling for Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitats of a Traditional Medicinal Plant ( Rheum nanum ) in Asia under Climate Change Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:5:p:610-:d:802395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/5/610/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/5/610/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stuart C. Brown & Tom M. L. Wigley & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner & Carsten Rahbek & Damien A. Fordham, 2020. "Persistent Quaternary climate refugia are hospices for biodiversity in the Anthropocene," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 244-248, March.
    2. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    3. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    4. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    5. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    6. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    7. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    8. Rashwan, Sherif S. & Shaaban, Ahmed M. & Al-Suliman, Fahad, 2017. "A comparative study of a small-scale solar PV power plant in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 313-318.
    9. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    10. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    11. Rowell, Jonathan T., 2009. "The limitation of species range: A consequence of searching along resource gradients," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 216-227.
    12. Lee Hannah & Marc Steele & Emily Fung & Pablo Imbach & Lorriane Flint & Alan Flint, 2017. "Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 63-75, March.
    13. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    14. Emiliano Mori & Andrea Sforzi & Giuseppe Bogliani & Pietro Milanesi, 2018. "Range expansion and redefinition of a crop-raiding rodent associated with global warming and temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 319-331, October.
    15. Mazzone, Antonella, 2020. "Thermal comfort and cooling strategies in the Brazilian Amazon. An assessment of the concept of fuel poverty in tropical climates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Wayne D Hawkins & Sarah E DuRant, 2020. "Applications of machine learning in behavioral ecology: Quantifying avian incubation behavior and nest conditions in relation to environmental temperature," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-13, August.
    17. William O Hobbs & Richard J Telford & H John B Birks & Jasmine E Saros & Roderick R O Hazewinkel & Bianca B Perren & Émilie Saulnier-Talbot & Alexander P Wolfe, 2010. "Quantifying Recent Ecological Changes in Remote Lakes of North America and Greenland Using Sediment Diatom Assemblages," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Sumani Sumani & Supriyadi Supriyadi & Siti Masiyah & Widya Aryani, 2020. "Soil Quality and the Selection of Physicochemical Properties around Maro Rivers in Merauke Papua," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(9), pages 1-69, September.
    19. Selvaraj Krishnan & Subhash Chander, 2015. "Simulation of climatic change impact on crop-pest interactions: a case study of rice pink stem borer Sesamia inferens (Walker)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 259-272, July.
    20. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:5:p:610-:d:802395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.