Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this method to obtain forecasts from experts, compare it with prediction markets, and conclude that Delphi should be used more widely. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2007
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 8 (Fall)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.forecasters.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
- Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2007:i:8:p:17-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pam Stroud)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.