IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fis/journl/240117.html

Analysis of the Effects of the Economic Crises and Pandemic on Foreign Trade in 1994-2022 with RALS-LM Structural Break Unit Root Test Method: The Case of Türkiye

Author

Listed:
  • Banu ERKÖK
  • Ali KONAK

Abstract

Türkiye commenced adopting export-led growth model by 1980. Via policies prioritizing the increase in export revenues, such as tax refunds, export credits, tax exemptions, and other subsidies, Türkiye targeted economic development by engaging in international trade and becoming a global economic agent. On the other hand, Türkiye gradually liberalized its financial markets starting in 1983 and completed the process of full liberalization of capital movements in 1989. However, adopting those liberal policies, Türkiye suffered many economic crises (1994, 2001, the 2008 global financial crises), paving the way to a sudden downturn in GDP, a decline in real income per capita, and employment. Also, the 2016 coup attempt, the 2018 Pastor Brunson crisis with the United States, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which created a severe global economic slowdown, negatively affected Türkiye’s economy. In this respect, within this paper, we aim to evaluate the impacts of those financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic between the years 1994-2022 on Türkiye’s foreign trade and to find out if the effects of those crises on Türkiye’s foreign trade are temporary or permanent.For this reason, we utilized the RALS-LM Structural Break Unit Root Test Method. The results underline that the 2008 global financial crisis substantially affected Türkiye’s exports and imports. However, the results also underline that the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on Türkiye’s foreign trade were temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Banu ERKÖK & Ali KONAK, 2024. "Analysis of the Effects of the Economic Crises and Pandemic on Foreign Trade in 1994-2022 with RALS-LM Structural Break Unit Root Test Method: The Case of Türkiye," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:fis:journl:240117
    DOI: 10.25295/fsecon.1381933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/3499658
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.25295/fsecon.1381933?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
    2. Im, Kyung So & Schmidt, Peter, 2008. "More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 219-233, May.
    3. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2020. "The Covid-19 economic crisis: dangerously unique," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 181-190, October.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/lj8ndsutc8i5ast4viool3gqa is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    7. Demir, Firat, 2004. "A Failure Story: Politics and Financial Liberalization in Turkey, Revisiting the Revolving Door Hypothesis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 851-869, May.
    8. Im, K.S., 1996. "Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    10. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: the Case of Trade," SciencePo Working papers hal-03461159, HAL.
    11. Zihui Ma & Leonard Cheng, 2005. "The Effects of Financial Crises on International Trade," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, pages 253-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ercan Uygur, 2010. "The Global Crisis And The Turkish Economy," Working Papers 2010/3, Turkish Economic Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Zouheir Bouchaddakh, 2013. "Banking and Monetary Crises: Impacts on Exports of MENA Countries," Working Papers 786, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2013.
    2. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, 2020. "How do banking crises affect bilateral exports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1431-1459, March.
    3. Zhijie Guan & Jim Kwee Fat Ip Ping Sheong, 2020. "Determinants of bilateral trade between China and Africa: a gravity model approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(5), pages 1015-1038, April.
    4. Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Favour Chidinma Onuoha & Philip C. Omoke, 2022. "Tripartite relationship between FDI, trade openness and economic growth amidst global economic crisis in Nigeria: application of combined cointegration and augmented ARDL analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Ridwan, Ibrahim Lanre & Senathirajah, Abdul Rahman Bin S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Investigating the asymmetric effects of financial development on trade performance in Africa: Can digitalization, transport services, and regulatory quality drive the vision 2063?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    6. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.
    7. Meng Ming & Lee Junsoo & Payne James E., 2017. "RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 31-45, February.
    8. Gökhan Konat & Fatma Zeren, 2021. "Is Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Series Stationary in EU Countries? Evidence from the RALS-CIPS Test," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1813-1825.
    9. Durmaz Nazif & Kim Hyeongwoo & Lee Hyejin & Sun Yanfei, 2026. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Fund Discounts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 749-772.
    10. Kent Matthews, 2014. "Cost Inefficiency in the Pakistan Banking Sector 2002-2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 1-20.
    11. Bédhat Jean-Marc Atsebi & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The trade costs of financial crises," CERDI Working papers halshs-01990335, HAL.
    12. Adu-Darko, Eunice & You, Kefei, 2025. "Structural breaks, institutional quality and productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 40-60.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sova, Anamaria Diana & Sova, Robert, 2022. "The direct and indirect effects of financial development on international trade: Evidence from the CEEC-6," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Ziya Onis & Ali Burak Güven, 2010. "Global Crisis, National Responses: The Political Economy of Turkish Exceptionalism," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1013, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Hyejin & Sun, Yanfei, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Mutual Fund Discounts," MPRA Paper 117789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ming Meng & Mark C. Strazicich & Junsoo Lee, 2017. "Hysteresis in unemployment? Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests and tests with non-normal errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    17. Raj Rajesh, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Great Recession on India’s Trade in Gravity Model Framework," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(4), pages 239-270, November.
    18. Faisal, Faisal & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Rahman, Sami Ur & Ali, Adnan & Sulimany, Hamid Ghazi H, 2024. "Asymmetric nexus between shadow economy and financial instability: Does institutional quality matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Yilanci, Veli & Aydin, Mücahit & Aydin, Mehmet, 2019. "Residual Augmented Fourier ADF Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 96797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2012. "The influence of industry financial composition on export flow: A case study of a developing financial market," MPRA Paper 43792, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fis:journl:240117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emre Atsan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://dergipark.org.tr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.