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The FOMC in 1997: a real conundrum

  • Peter S. Yoo
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    Although the economic performance of the U.S. economy in 1997 was very good, it was troubling in at least one respect for the Federal Open Market Committee. Traditional signals of inflation - rapid money growth and high levels of economic activity - were not accompanied by higher inflation. Rather, inflation fell steadily throughout the year. The committee put forth several hypotheses for the subdued inflation but found the situation puzzling, nevertheless. Compounding the problem, members did not know how long such dampening factors might last. In the end the FOMC changed the intended federal funds target once and searched anxiously for the answers to the conundrum it faced in 1997.

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    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/98/09/9809py.pdf
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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

    Volume (Year): (1998)
    Issue (Month): Sep ()
    Pages: 27-40

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1998:i:sep:p:27-40:n:5
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    1. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Barro, Robert J., 1986. "Reputation in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-20, January.
    3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
    6. David Kreps & Robert Wilson, 1999. "Reputation and Imperfect Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 238, David K. Levine.
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