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Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”

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Abstract

We calibrate a macroeconomic model with epidemiological restrictions using Colombian data. The key feature of our model is that a portion of the population is immune and cannot transmit the virus, which improves substantially the fit of the model to the observed contagion and economic activity data. The model implies that during 2020, government restrictions and the endogenous changes in individual behavior saved around 15,000 lives and decreased consumption by about 4.7 percent. The results suggest that most of this effect was the result of government policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza & Juan David Martin & Álvaro José Riascos, 2022. "Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model with “Acquired Immunity”," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 104(1), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:93338
    DOI: 10.20955/r.104.1-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    2. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; economic activity; government policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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