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The global saving glut and the fall in U.S. real interest rates: A 15-year retrospective

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  • Robert Barsky
  • Matthew Easton

Abstract

The authors revisit Ben Bernanke’s global saving glut (GSG) hypothesis from 2005—which links low long-term real interest rates in the United States to excess saving in a number of non-Western countries, including, but not limited to, China. Using an analytical framework and empirical data, they find that the ability of the GSG hypothesis to explain the fall in long-term real rates between 2002 and 2006 is likely much greater than its ability to account for the further fall in these rates from the Great Recession onward.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Barsky & Matthew Easton, 2021. "The global saving glut and the fall in U.S. real interest rates: A 15-year retrospective," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue EP-2021-1, pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:91995
    DOI: 10.21033/ep-2021-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hayne E. Leland, 1968. "Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 465-473.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    5. Bernanke, B.S., 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States 2003-2007," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 13-26, February.
    6. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Robert Lerman, 2006. "Recycling petrodollars," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Dec).
    7. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir & Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2022. "World Money in Time and Space: A Blow to the Dollar or a Blow by the Dollar?," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 7-33.
    2. Francesco Bianchi & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi, 2021. "Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 453, pages 1-8, April.
    3. Kaan Celebi & Werner Roeger & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2024. "Persistent US Current Account Deficit: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2074, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Srichander Ramaswamy, 2022. "The Threat of Financial Sanctions: What Safeguards Can Central Banks Build?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(3), pages 23-41, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global savings glut; saving and investment; current account; capital flows; long-term interest rates; real interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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