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Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

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Abstract

Inflation has climbed since 2021, as the labor market has tightened. Two historical data relationships can account for elevated inflation over the past two years: the Beveridge curve, which relates job vacancies and unemployment rates over the business cycle, and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve, which links inflation to labor market slack. Combining estimates of the two curves implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.

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  • Erin E. Crust & Kevin J. Lansing & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2023. "Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(17), pages 1-5, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mary C. Daly, 2024. "Price Stability Built to Last," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(01), pages 1-6, February.
    2. Mary C. Daly, 2024. "Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(17), pages 1-6, July.
    3. Régis Barnichon & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2002. "Phillips Meets Beveridge," Working Paper Series 2024-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2024. "Inflation’s Last Half Mile: Higher for Longer?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(09), pages 1-8, May.

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