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Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

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Abstract

Inflation has climbed since 2021, as the labor market has tightened. Two historical data relationships can account for elevated inflation over the past two years: the Beveridge curve, which relates job vacancies and unemployment rates over the business cycle, and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve, which links inflation to labor market slack. Combining estimates of the two curves implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Erin E. Crust & Kevin J. Lansing & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2023. "Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(17), pages 1-5, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:96430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Régis Barnichon & Adam Shapiro, 2024. "Phillips Meets Beveridge," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mary C. Daly, 2024. "Price Stability Built to Last," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(01), pages 1-6, February.
    3. Mary C. Daly, 2024. "Getting It Right: Meeting Uncertainty with Conditionality," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(17), pages 1-6, July.
    4. Randal J. Verbrugge, 2024. "Inflation’s Last Half Mile: Higher for Longer?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(09), pages 1-8, May.

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