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Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Reuven Glick
  • Noah Kouchekinia

Abstract

Disagreement among economic forecasters about the outlook for inflation in both the United States and the euro area has increased since the onset of the pandemic. The nature of these forecast differences can provide insights into the inflation risks that lie ahead. Many forecasters initially expected substantially lower inflation over the next year but subsequently raised their expectations as economic activity began to improve. In contrast, changes in expectations and disagreement about longer-term inflation have been relatively subdued and suggest a balanced likelihood between higher and lower inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick & Noah Kouchekinia, 2021. "Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(08), pages 01-05, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:90370
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    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2021-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    2. Jonas Dovern & Geoff Kenny, 2020. "Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 309-347, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo J. M. Arnold, 2022. "Monetary overhang in times of covid: evidence from the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(35), pages 4030-4042, July.
    2. Ivo J. M. Arnold, 2026. "Output and Money Growth in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 1-25, March.

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