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Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations?

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  • Wesley Janson
  • Chengcheng Jia

Abstract

In responding to the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve has both lowered the federal funds rate and provided forward guidance. We study whether the forward guidance given with the April and June 2020 FOMC meetings altered the public’s expectations of future policy rates, GDP growth, and inflation. We find that forward guidance was effective in altering the public’s expectations about future policy rates if it was accompanied by an SEP but not expectations about economic fundamentals. We suggest that the difference might be explained by FOMC statements being interpretable in two different ways and the public not having a dominant view on which interpretation was intended.

Suggested Citation

  • Wesley Janson & Chengcheng Jia, 2020. "Forward Guidance during the Pandemic: Has It Changed the Public’s Expectations?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(27), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:89101
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Unconventional Policy Instruments and Transmission Channels:A State-Contingent Toolbox for the ECB," DEM Working Papers 2021/05, Department of Economics and Management.

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    Keywords

    COVID-19; monetary policy;

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