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Neutral Interest Rates and the Monetary Policy Stance

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Abstract

The neutral interest rate (r-star) is an important input in monetary policy discussions and is commonly used to assess the stance of monetary policy. This Economic Commentary presents estimates of the neutral interest rate from a recently developed model and provides a high-level description of this new model. With data through 2025:Q2, the model estimates the implied (medium-run) nominal neutral interest rate to be 3.7 percent, with a 68 percent coverage band ranging from 2.9 percent to 4.5 percent. Given that the effective nominal federal funds rate is currently in the range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, this model estimates with a high level of certainty (77 percent probability) that the policy stance is in restrictive territory.

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  • Taylor N. Horn & Saeed Zaman, 2025. "Neutral Interest Rates and the Monetary Policy Stance," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2025(08), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:101561
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202508
    Note: The updates to the estimates of neutral interest rate (r-star) from the Zaman model reported in this Economic Commentary are available at openICPSR, https://doi.org/10.3886/E227362V1.
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    1. Christian Garciga & Edward S. Knotek & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2016. "Federal Funds Rates Based on Seven Simple Monetary Policy Rules," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue July.
    2. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    3. Jason Choi & Taeyoung Doh & Andrew Foerster & Zinnia Martinez, 2022. "Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(30), pages 1-5, November.
    4. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
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