A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change
This study suggests that U.S. monetary policy has been influenced by forecasts of and past experience with three broad factors: inflation, economic activity, and the monetary aggregates. The influence of each factor has varied, however, within this common theme. In the past 22 years at least two specific changes have occurred: the October 1979 shift to greater emphasis on a narrow measure of money and a shift in the early 1980s from M1 targeting to M2. ; The author models monetary policy econometrically, testing the influence of numerous factors on monetary policy and investigating whether a formal model can capture variations in these factors and in the policy instrument. The study also tests the influence of a number of other factors that are often thought to have an impact on monetary policy, such as measufes Of fiscal policy, exchange rates, and stock prices, as well as the President and Fed Chairman and the political party in power. The results indicate that monetary policy does not react systematically to these other factors.
Volume (Year): (1992)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Fair, Ray C, 1978.
"The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1165-1179, September.
- Ray C. Fair, 1977. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 446, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Barth, James & Sickles, Robin & Wiest, Philip, 1982. "Assessing the impact of varying economic conditions on federal reserve behavior," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 47-70.
- Abrams, Richard K & Froyen, Richard & Waud, Roger N, 1980. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, Consistent Expectations, and the Burns Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 30-42, February.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1985. "Federal Deficits, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 655-681, November.
- Glenn T. Potts & Dudley G. Luckett, 1978. "Policy Objectives of the Federal Reserve System," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(3), pages 525-534.
- Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1992. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-336, April.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1989. "Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Froyen, Richard T., 1974. "A test of the endogeneity of monetary policy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 175-188, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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