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Expectativas Desagregadas, Credibilidade do Banco Central e Cadeias de Markov

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  • Garcia, Marcio Gomes Pinto
  • Guillen, Diogo Abry

Abstract

Propomos e implementamos uma medida da credibilidade do Banco Central do Brasil, fazendo uso de uma base de dados com expectativas desagregadas. A hipótese é de que a heterogeneidade das expectativas de longo prazo advenha de crenças distintas com relação à aversão do Banco Central à inflação. Desse modo, a existência de agentes persistentemente otimistas ou pessimistas indicaria falta de credibilidade. Com base neste argumento, construímos um índice utilizando Cadeias de Markov. Nosso índice inova em relação aos disponíveis na literatura por considerar a dispersão das expectativas. Nossos resultados são comparados com os de outros artigos, corroborando o aprimoramento advindo da nova medida da credibilidade.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia, Marcio Gomes Pinto & Guillen, Diogo Abry, 2014. "Expectativas Desagregadas, Credibilidade do Banco Central e Cadeias de Markov," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:68:y:2014:i:2:a:12599
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    2. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2017. "Empirical Findings on Inflation Expectations in Brazil: a survey," Working Papers Series 464, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. de Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 72-91.

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