IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erp/eiopxx/p0011.html

The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Breuss, Fritz

Abstract

Recent economic forecasts increase the probability that firstly, the EMU can start as planned on January 1, 1999 and secondly, that it will start with a large group of countries. The economic implications of the artificially unification of "hard-currency" and "soft-currency" countries are analysed by means of macroeconomic model simulations. The results of a large "non-optimal" EMU are as expected. On the one hand, there are positive income effects for all countries although unevenly distributed over the participants on the other hand, the internal (inflation) and external (value of the Euro vis-à-vis the Dollar) stability are at risk. The "hard-currency" group will be the major winner (in terms of real GDP and employment), whereas the "soft-currency" group has to carry the adjustment costs to a regime of fixed exchange rates (Euro) which results in slower growth, decline in employment and a deterioration of their budgetary position. The necessary convergence of prices and interest rates leads to an increase (decrease) of inflation and interest rates in the "hard-currency" countries ("soft-currency" countries). If the EMU will start with a large group there will be a tendency to devalue the Euro against the Dollar. As a consequence of the uneven economic performance of a large (non-optimal) EMU I would suggest to start the EMU with a core group of "hard-currency" countries. After this mini EMU succeeded the other Member States could join the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Breuss, Fritz, 1997. "The Economic Consequences of a Large EMU Results of Macroeconomic Model Simulations," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 1, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:erp:eiopxx:p0011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eiop.or.at/eiop/texte/1997-010a.htm
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://eiop.or.at/eiop/texte/1997-010.htm
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://eiop.or.at/eiop/pdf/1997-010.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenen,Peter B., 1995. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521558839, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Teilstudie 4: Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik: Binnenmarkt, WWU, Lissabon, Erweiterung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 27443, June.
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Austria and Switzerland – Experiences with and without EU Membership," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 11(1), pages 13-39, February.
    3. Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2011. "The Quantitative Effects of European Post-war Economic Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Mark Hallerberg & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza & William Roberts Clark, 2002. "Political Business Cycles in EU Accession Countries," European Union Politics, , vol. 3(2), pages 231-250, June.
    5. Fritz Breuss, 2003. "Österreich, Finnland und Schweden in der EU. Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(7), pages 529-556, July.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2012. "EU-Mitgliedschaft Österreichs. Eine Evaluierung in Zeiten der Krise," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45578, June.
    7. Egon Smeral, 1999. "Europäische Währungsunion und internationaler Tourismus," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 72(3), pages 187-195, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barry Eichengreen and Fabio Ghironi., 1997. "European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-091, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Yochanan Shachmurove & Alojzy Z. Nowak, 2012. "Failing Institutions Are at the Core of the Euro Crisis," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-041, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-94, April.
    4. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Lessons from Postwar Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 2723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kenen, Peter B., 1995. "What have we learned from the EMS crises?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 449-461, October.
    6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
    7. Chris Kirrane, 2018. "Maastricht and Monetary Cooperation," Papers 1807.00419, arXiv.org.
    8. repec:ejw:journl:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:4-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1997. "Long Term Debt and the Political Support for a Monetary Union," Other publications TiSEM ce87feec-a476-404f-90d2-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Jorg Bibow, 2005. "Bad for Euroland, Worse for Germany: The ECB's Record," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_429, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Marc Quintyn, 2009. "Independent agencies: more than a cheap copy of independent central banks?," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 267-295, September.
    12. Esteban Perez-Caldentey & Matias Vernengo, 2012. "The Euro Imbalances and Financial Deregulation: A Post-Keynesian Interpretation of the European Debt Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_702, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1997. "An Analysis of the 'Stability Pact'," CEPR Discussion Papers 1669, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Gerardo Licandro, 2000. "Is Mercosur an Optimal Currency Area? A shock correlation perspective," Documentos de trabajo 2000004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    16. Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
    17. André Sapir, 2011. "European Integration at the Crossroads: A Review Essay on the 50th Anniversary of Bela Balassa's Theory of Economic Integration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1200-1229, December.
    18. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Jörg Bibow, 2012. "The Euro and its Guardian of Stability: Fiction and Reality of the 10th Anniversary Blast," Chapters, in: Louis-Philippe Rochon & Salewa ‘Yinka Olawoye (ed.), Monetary Policy and Central Banking, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    21. Thomas Willett, 1999. "Developments in the Political Economy of Policy Coordination," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 221-253, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erp:eiopxx:p0011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Assistant The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Editorial Assistant to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecsaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.