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RTC Laws Increase Violent Crime: Moody and Marvell Have Missed the Target

Author

Listed:
  • John J. Donohue
  • Abhay Aneja
  • Kyle D. Weber

Abstract

An NBER working paper by Donohue, Aneja, and Weber (DAW) estimates the impact of right-to-carry (RTC) laws and finds using data from 1979–2014 that RTC laws lead to significant increases in violent crime whether one adopts a traditional panel data approach or a new synthetic control analysis. Carlisle Moody and Thomas Marvell (MM) respond by mimicking those two approaches, but serious coding errors mar every estimate they offer in their paper. Moreover, their suggestions for changing the methodologies employed by DAW are both conceptually and econometrically flawed. Despite these flaws, the actual MM synthetic control estimates for each adopting state, which they fail to present in either state-by-state or aggregated form, suggest that RTC laws in aggregate have generated a 16 percent increase in violent crime over the decade following adoption, which is roughly the same as the 13–15 percent increase predicted by DAW.

Suggested Citation

  • John J. Donohue & Abhay Aneja & Kyle D. Weber, 2019. "RTC Laws Increase Violent Crime: Moody and Marvell Have Missed the Target," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 16(1), pages 1-97–113, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:16:y:2019:i:1:p:97-113
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lott, Jr., John R., 2010. "More Guns, Less Crime," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 3, number 9780226493664.
    2. Mark Anderson, D. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Tekin, Erdal, 2021. "Child access prevention laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Moody, Carlisle E, 2001. "Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 799-813, October.
    4. D. Mark Anderson & Joseph J. Sabia, 2018. "Child-Access-Prevention Laws, Youths' Gun Carrying, and School Shootings," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 489-524.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shall-issue; gun control;

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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