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On the Dynamic Interdependency of Unemployment and COVID-19 Deaths

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  • D M Welsch
  • D M Zimmer

Abstract

Using monthly data from U.S. counties, this paper offers evidence that rising COVID-19-related deaths appear to lead to reduced economic activity, but that reduced economic activity, in turn, helps to achieve its stated purpose: reducing subsequent deaths. Using a dynamic panel seemingly-unrelated regression model, the paper estimates that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to approximately 3,300 fewer COVID-19-related deaths nationally in the subsequent month. From a policy perspective, that finding offers suggestive evidence that lockdowns (and other restrictions), while economically painful, appear to be effective at reducing subsequent deaths

Suggested Citation

  • D M Welsch & D M Zimmer, 2022. "On the Dynamic Interdependency of Unemployment and COVID-19 Deaths," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 27(1), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:122welsch
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    File URL: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Files/2022/EI_March2022_welsch.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pandemic; labour force; SUR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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