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COVID-19 and armed conflict

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  • Ide, Tobias

Abstract

This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a worrisome trend given the tremendous impacts of armed conflict on human security and on the capabilities of countries to deal with health emergencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ide, Tobias, 2021. "COVID-19 and armed conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:140:y:2021:i:c:s0305750x20304836
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John E. Ataguba, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic, a War to be Won: Understanding its Economic Implications for Africa," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 325-328, June.
    2. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
    3. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    4. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde & Simona Valmori, 2017. "Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2581-2616, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bank, André & Deepen, Yannick & Grauvogel, Julia & Kurtenbach, Sabine, 2022. "COVID-19 and violent actors in the global south: An inter- and cross-regional comparison," GIGA Working Papers 329, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    2. Sepahvand, Mohammad H. & Verwimp, Philip, 2023. "Fighting Covid-19 amidst civil conflict: Micro-level evidence from Burkina Faso," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Basedau, Matthias & Deitch, Mora, 2021. "One year after: Has the COVID-19 pandemic increased violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," GIGA Working Papers 327, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Roos Haer & Babak RezaeeDaryakenari, 2022. "Disasters and civilian victimization: Exploring the dynamic effect in Africa, 1997–2017," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 43-57, January.

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