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Shutdown Policies and Worldwide Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (Aix-Marseille University
    CEPR)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (University of Lyon
    CEPR)

  • Nathalie Monnet

    (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva))

  • Rohit Ticku

    (Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society, Chapman University)

Abstract

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We use daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the decline is signiï¬ cant for conflicts involving political militias, protesters and civilians. We also observe a signiï¬ cant cross-country heterogeneity in the effect of restriction policies on conflict: no conflict reduction is observed in low income countries and in societies more fractionalized along ethnic or religious lines. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Nathalie Monnet & Rohit Ticku, 2020. "Shutdown Policies and Worldwide Conflict," Working Papers 20-16, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chu:wpaper:20-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Politics

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    Cited by:

    1. Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Salemi, Colette, 2021. "COVID-19 and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Thomas Plümper & Eric Neumayer & Katharina Gabriela Pfaff, 2021. "The strategy of protest against Covid‐19 containment policies in Germany," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2236-2250, September.
    3. Basedau, Matthias & Deitch, Mora, 2021. "One year after: Has the COVID-19 pandemic increased violence in sub-Saharan Africa?," GIGA Working Papers 327, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Conflict; Violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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