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Passenger car flows across the Canada–US border: The effect of 9/11

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  • Anderson, William P.
  • Maoh, Hanna F.
  • Burke, Charles M.

Abstract

This paper examines trends in passenger vehicle flows across the Canada–US border over the period from 1972 to 2011. Graphical presentation illustrates a strong declining trend in same day trips over the period from 2001 to 2011, which may be associated with the enhanced security regime at the border in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. However other factors, including a strengthening Canadian dollar and slow economic growth after 2008 may also contribute to this trend. Regression analysis is used to identify factors affecting cross-border flows in both directions for both single day and multi-day trips. A parallel analysis is done for the flows to and from the Province of Ontario only. Results indicate that even after controlling for exchange rates and economic performance, a significant negative impact of 9/11 can be detected. A counterfactual exercise suggests that a quite dramatic reduction in vehicle crossings in both directions may be attributed to 9/11.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, William P. & Maoh, Hanna F. & Burke, Charles M., 2014. "Passenger car flows across the Canada–US border: The effect of 9/11," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 50-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:35:y:2014:i:c:p:50-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Quantifying Non-Tariff Trade Barriers: What Difference Did 9/11 Make to Canadian Cross-Border Shopping?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 36(4), pages 487-501, December.
    2. Trien T. Nguyen & Randall M. Wigle, 2011. "Border Delays Re-Emerging Priority: Within-Country Dimensions for Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 37(1), pages 49-59, March.
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    4. Michael Burt, 2009. "Tighter Border Security and Its Effect on Canadian Exports," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(2), pages 149-169, June.
    5. Steven Globerman & Paul Storer, 2009. "Border Security and Canadian Exports to the United States: Evidence and Policy Implications," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(2), pages 171-186, June.
    6. J. Stephen Ferris, 2009. "Quantifying Non-tariff Trading Barriers: What Difference Did the U.S. Security Precautions Following 9/11 Make to Canadian Cross Border Shopping? -revised version: Quantifying Non-Tariff Trade Barrier," Carleton Economic Papers 09-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maoh, Hanna F. & Khan, Shakil A. & Anderson, William P., 2016. "Truck movement across the Canada–US border: The effects of 9/11 and other factors," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-21.
    2. Opasanon, Sathaporn & Kitthamkesorn, Songyot, 2016. "Border crossing design in light of the ASEAN Economic Community: Simulation based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Smith, Matthew J. & Ray, Sayan Basu & Raymond, Aaron & Sienna, Micah & Lilly, Meredith B., 2018. "Long-term lessons on the effects of post-9/11 border thickening on cross-border trade between Canada and the United States: A systematic review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 198-207.

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