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Study on the impact of population migration on transport carbon emissions

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  • Li, Jiajia
  • Li, Siyuan

Abstract

To support China's “double carbon” goals and low-carbon transport development, this study empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of population migration on transport carbon emissions using spatial econometric and mediation effect models with panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2020). Results show that both intra-provincial and inter-provincial migration significantly increase local transport carbon emissions, with significant negative spatial spillover effects on neighboring provinces. Regionally, migration reduces emissions in eastern China but increases them in central and western regions. Mechanism tests reveal heterogeneous pathways: urban population size mediates only inter-provincial migration; transport intensity exerts a consistent suppression effect for both types; and green technology progress functions as a negative mediator, indicating that migration may crowd out innovation and thereby raise emissions. This study provides targeted policy implications for region-specific low-carbon transport governance and coordinated development of population migration and emission reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jiajia & Li, Siyuan, 2026. "Study on the impact of population migration on transport carbon emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0967070x25005001
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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