Replacing short-haul flights with train travel: Exploring impacts, capacity requirements and policy implications

Short-haul Flight (SHF) bans aim to stimulate the air-to-rail modal shift, consequently curbing the aviation sector’s environmental impact. We investigate the potential implications of various SHF ban policy designs on CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions, passengers’ travel times and rail capacity under the assumption of full air-to-rail modal substitution. Ranging from 0.4 Mt to 7.5 Mt CO2e, respectively 0.6% to 12.3% of the emissions of commercial intra-European aviation, the environmental impact of SHF ban policies is shown to be largely dependent on the policy design, namely the affected journey types and rail in-vehicle time thresholds. Our findings underscore the significant challenges of implementing such policies for the longer rail in-vehicle time thresholds and wider geographical scopes associated with noticeable environmental benefits. Despite the marginal impact of SHF ban policies on capacity utilisation in the case study, considerable interventions on rail infrastructure would be required to absorb existing air demand completely while ensuring attractive schedules. The results contribute to the ongoing policy debate, providing actionable insights to support Europe’s ambitious environmental goals in the transport sector.