Impacts of national strategies on gateway ports: An empirical study in the Bohai Rim

National strategies have a large influence on the development of ports, especially gateway ports. The Bohai Rim is facing a new round of China's national strategies. It could be predicted that the statuses of the regional gateway ports in the international liner shipping network would change. In this paper, AIS data are adopted to identify the gateway ports in the Bohai Rim. With consideration of the choice behaviour of shippers and the uncertainty of the effects of national strategies, a liner network optimization model is constructed to estimate the service frequency of liners at four gateway ports (Qingdao, Tianjin, Dalian, Busan). On this basis, the roles of these ports in the global liner shipping network and the competitiveness regarding typical shipping routes (U.S., European and Southeast Asian routes) are investigated. The results reveal the following: (i) The transport demand growth brought by the revitalization strategy of the Old Industrial Base would significantly promote the status of Dalian Port. The calling frequencies of Qingdao Port would be improved, narrowing the gap in route density between it and Busan Port. However, more than expected, this growth might weaken the competitiveness of Tianjin Port, especially regarding U.S. and Southeast Asian routes. (ii) The pilot free trade zone (FTZ) policy could significantly promote the service frequencies of trunk routes at the Qingdao, Tianjin and Dalian Ports. When trade facilitation reaches the same level as that of Busan Port, the calling frequencies of Qingdao Port might surpass those of Busan Port.