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Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model

  • Garrido, Rodrigo A.
  • Mahmassani, Hani S.
Registered author(s):

    Freight transportation demand is a highly variable process over space and time. A multinomial probit (MNP) model with spatially and temporally correlated error structure is proposed for freight demand analysis for tactical/operational planning applications. The resulting model has a large number of alternatives, and estimation is performed using Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the MNP likelihoods. The model is successfully applied to a data set of actual shipments served by a large truckload carrier. In addition to the substantive insights obtained from the estimation results, forecasting tests are performed to assess the model's predictive ability for operational purposes.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 5 (June)
    Pages: 403-418

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:34:y:2000:i:5:p:403-418
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