IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v192y2025ics0965856424004002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inertia and shock effects in public transport: The case of metro line 6 in Santiago using smart card data

Author

Listed:
  • Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss
  • Raveau, Sebastián
  • Soza-Parra, Jaime

Abstract

Traffic forecasting has traditionally relied solely on characteristics related to services and users. However, recent research has highlighted the importance of considering travellers’ psychological factors in explaining travel behaviour. While previous studies have incorporated the role of habits in travel choice behaviour, only a few have analysed the role of inertia and shock related to major changes in transport networks. This study contributes to previous research by revealing the changes in the behaviour of public transport passengers over time after the inauguration of a new metro line in Santiago, Chile, using large-scale revealed-preference data from automated fare collection systems. It explicitly analysed the consequences of the new metro on passenger behaviour by considering different passenger types, using a heteroskedastic mixed latent class public transport mode choice model incorporating both inertia effects resulting from habitual behaviour and shock effects resulting from a significant change to the public transport network. The results confirmed significant habitual behaviour among passengers, in that metro users tended to stick to using the metro, but bus users tended to switch to other modes. However, after the introduction of the new metro line, a significant shock effect was observed, whereby users had an increased tendency to switch to modes that improved their level of service, and this effect increased slightly in the longer term. The results highlight the importance of incorporating inertia and shock effects into behavioural studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss & Raveau, Sebastián & Soza-Parra, Jaime, 2025. "Inertia and shock effects in public transport: The case of metro line 6 in Santiago using smart card data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004002
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424004002
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2024.104352?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tommy Gärling & Kay Axhausen, 2003. "Introduction: Habitual travel choice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11, February.
    2. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Ángel Simón & Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2017. "Testing for inertia effect when a new tram is implemented," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 150-159.
    3. Elisabetta Cherchi & Cinzia Cirillo, 2014. "Understanding variability, habit and the effect of long period activity plan in modal choices: a day to day, week to week analysis on panel data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1245-1262, November.
    4. Morency, Catherine & Trépanier, Martin & Agard, Bruno, 2007. "Measuring transit use variability with smart-card data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 193-203, May.
    5. Soza-Parra, Jaime & Raveau, Sebastián & Muñoz, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Travel preferences of public transport users under uneven headways," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 61-75.
    6. Kun Gao & Minhua Shao & Kay W. Axhausen & Lijun Sun & Huizhao Tu & Yihong Wang, 2022. "Inertia effects of past behavior in commuting modal shift behavior: interactions, variations and implications for demand estimation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1063-1097, August.
    7. Jaime Soza-Parra & Sebastián Raveau & Juan Carlos Muñoz, 2022. "Public transport reliability across preferences, modes, and space," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 621-640, April.
    8. Víctor Cantillo & Juan de Dios Ortúzar & Huw C. W. L. Williams, 2007. "Modeling Discrete Choices in the Presence of Inertia and Serial Correlation," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 195-205, May.
    9. Juan De Dios Ortúzar & Jimmy Armoogum & Jean‐Loup Madre & Françoise Potier, 2011. "Continuous Mobility Surveys: The State of Practice," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 293-312.
    10. Tirachini, Alejandro & Hurtubia, Ricardo & Dekker, Thijs & Daziano, Ricardo A., 2017. "Estimation of crowding discomfort in public transport: Results from Santiago de Chile," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 311-326.
    11. Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin & Susilo, Yusak O. & Franklin, Joel P., 2016. "Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 78-95.
    12. Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2000. "A stochastic transit assignment model considering differences in passengers utility functions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 377-402, June.
    13. Robert Schlich & Kay Axhausen, 2003. "Habitual travel behaviour: Evidence from a six-week travel diary," Transportation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 13-36, February.
    14. Lissy Paix & Abu Toasin Oakil & Frank Hofman & Karst Geurs, 2022. "The influence of panel effects and inertia on travel cost elasticities for car use and public transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 989-1016, June.
    15. Özlem Şimşekoğlu & Trond Nordfjærn & Torbjørn Rundmo, 2017. "Predictors of car use habit strength in an urban Norwegian public," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 575-588, May.
    16. Raveau, Sebastián & Muñoz, Juan Carlos & de Grange, Louis, 2011. "A topological route choice model for metro," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 138-147, February.
    17. Nielsen, Otto Anker & Eltved, Morten & Anderson, Marie Karen & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2021. "Relevance of detailed transfer attributes in large-scale multimodal route choice models for metropolitan public transport passengers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 76-92.
    18. Ben-Akiva, Moshe & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2002. "Comparing ridership attraction of rail and bus," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 107-116, April.
    19. Marie Karen Anderson & Otto Anker Nielsen & Carlo Giacomo Prato, 2017. "Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 221-245, September.
    20. Elisabetta Cherchi & Francesco Manca, 2011. "Accounting for inertia in modal choices: some new evidence using a RP/SP dataset," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 679-695, July.
    21. Thorhauge, Mikkel & Swait, Joffre & Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2020. "The habit-driven life: Accounting for inertia in departure time choices for commuting trips," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 272-289.
    22. Yáñez, M.F. & Raveau, S. & Ortúzar, J. de D., 2010. "Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 744-753, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guajardo Ortega, Maria Fernanda & Link, Heike, 2025. "Mode choice inertia and shock: Three months of almost fare-free public transport in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    2. Kun Gao & Minhua Shao & Kay W. Axhausen & Lijun Sun & Huizhao Tu & Yihong Wang, 2022. "Inertia effects of past behavior in commuting modal shift behavior: interactions, variations and implications for demand estimation," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1063-1097, August.
    3. Kazagli, Evanthia & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2023. "A discrete choice modeling framework of heterogenous decision rules accounting for non-trading behavior," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Schmid, Basil & Becker, Felix & Axhausen, Kay W. & Widmer, Paul & Stein, Petra, 2023. "A simultaneous model of residential location, mobility tool ownership and mode choice using latent variables," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Maria Fernanda Guajardo Ortega & Heike Link, 2023. "Estimating Mode Choice Inertia and Price Elasticities after a Price Intervention – Evidence from Three Months of almost Fare-free Public Transport in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2052, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. La Paix Puello, Lissy & Olde-Kalter, Marie-José & Geurs, Karst T., 2017. "Measurement of non-random attrition effects on mobility rates using trip diaries data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 51-64.
    7. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Ángel Simón & Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2017. "Testing for inertia effect when a new tram is implemented," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 150-159.
    8. Prateek Bansal & Daniel Horcher & Daniel J. Graham, 2020. "A Dynamic Choice Model with Heterogeneous Decision Rules: Application in Estimating the User Cost of Rail Crowding," Papers 2007.03682, arXiv.org.
    9. Lissy Paix & Abu Toasin Oakil & Frank Hofman & Karst Geurs, 2022. "The influence of panel effects and inertia on travel cost elasticities for car use and public transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 989-1016, June.
    10. Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss & Thorhauge, Mikkel & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Eltved, Morten, 2024. "Public transport route choice modelling: Reducing estimation bias when using smart card data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    11. Di Ciommo, Floridea & Comendador, Julio & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2014. "Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 46-55.
    12. Jacqueline Arriagada & C. Angelo Guevara & Marcela Munizaga & Song Gao, 2025. "An experiential learning-based transit route choice model using large-scale smart-card data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1543-1568, August.
    13. Pan, Xiaofeng & Rasouli, Soora & Timmermans, Harry, 2019. "Modeling social influence using sequential stated adaptation experiments: A study of city trip itinerary choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 652-672.
    14. Nielsen, Otto Anker & Eltved, Morten & Anderson, Marie Karen & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2021. "Relevance of detailed transfer attributes in large-scale multimodal route choice models for metropolitan public transport passengers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 76-92.
    15. Schmid, Basil & Jokubauskaite, Simona & Aschauer, Florian & Peer, Stefanie & Hössinger, Reinhard & Gerike, Regine & Jara-Diaz, Sergio R. & Axhausen, Kay W., 2019. "A pooled RP/SP mode, route and destination choice model to investigate mode and user-type effects in the value of travel time savings," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 262-294.
    16. Cherchi, Elisabetta & Cirillo, Cinzia & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2017. "Modelling correlation patterns in mode choice models estimated on multiday travel data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 146-153.
    17. Thomas, Tom & La Paix Puello, Lissy & Geurs, Karst, 2019. "Intrapersonal mode choice variation: Evidence from a four-week smartphone-based travel survey in the Netherlands," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 287-300.
    18. Sung-Pil Hong & Yun-Hong Min & Myoung-Ju Park & Kyung Min Kim & Suk Mun Oh, 2016. "Precise estimation of connections of metro passengers from Smart Card data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 749-769, September.
    19. Manca, Francesco & Sivakumar, Aruna & Polak, John W., 2022. "Capturing the effect of multiple social influence sources on the adoption of new transport technologies and services," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Thorhauge, Mikkel & Swait, Joffre & Cherchi, Elisabetta, 2020. "The habit-driven life: Accounting for inertia in departure time choices for commuting trips," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 272-289.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.