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Assessment of 5G spectrum values and investment strategies considering demands forecasts and regulations: A Korean 5G case

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  • An, Donghyun
  • Lee, Deok-Joo

Abstract

In South Korea, the 28 GHz 5G licenses issued in 2018 were revoked after operators failed to meet the network building requirement, highlighting the need for rigorous assessment of regulatory obligations. This study develops an analytical framework that evaluates license value and the economic effects of regulatory conditions by integrating multi-generation demand forecasting, optimal base-station allocation, and a constrained real-options model. By representing regulatory rules as explicit constraints and quantifying their economic impact through shadow prices, the framework clarifies how policy choices influence deployment decisions. A case study on mmWave 5G identifies regional disparities in reserve prices and obligation burdens, and a sensitivity analysis shows how regulatory, financial, and usage parameters affect license feasibility. The results illustrate how regulators can calibrate obligations to regional conditions and how operators can assess deployment feasibility under alternative regulatory or demand scenarios, providing guidance for designing regulations that are economically evaluable.

Suggested Citation

  • An, Donghyun & Lee, Deok-Joo, 2026. "Assessment of 5G spectrum values and investment strategies considering demands forecasts and regulations: A Korean 5G case," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:224:y:2026:i:c:s0040162526000028
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124525
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