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Towards 5G: Scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure

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  • Oughton, Edward
  • Frias, Zoraida
  • Russell, Tom
  • Sicker, Douglas
  • Cleevely, David D.

Abstract

Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that over 90% of baseline data growth between 2016 and 2030 is driven by technological change, rather than demographics. To meet this demand, spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and can meet baseline growth until approximately 2025, after which new spectrum bands will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Oughton, Edward & Frias, Zoraida & Russell, Tom & Sicker, Douglas & Cleevely, David D., 2018. "Towards 5G: Scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 141-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:141-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.03.016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ly, Pham Thi Minh & Lai, Wen-Hsiang & Hsu, Chiung-Wen & Shih, Fang-Yin, 2018. "Fuzzy AHP analysis of Internet of Things (IoT) in enterprises," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Hoeschele, Thomas & Dietzel, Christoph & Kopp, Daniel & Fitzek, Frank H.P. & Reisslein, Martin, 2021. "Importance of Internet Exchange Point (IXP) infrastructure for 5G: Estimating the impact of 5G use cases," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    3. Edward J. Oughton & Will Usher & Peter Tyler & Jim W. Hall, 2018. "Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, November.
    4. Satyanand Singh & Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka & István Drotár & Xavier Fernando, 2023. "Oceania’s 5G Multi-Tier Fixed Wireless Access Link’s Long-Term Resilience and Feasibility Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-29, October.
    5. Ioannou, Nikos & Kokkinis, Dimitris & Katsianis, Dimitris & Varoutas, Dimitris, 2023. "Comparative Techno-Economic Evaluation of 5G Infrastructure Sharing Business Models in European Rural Areas," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 277973, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    6. Lee, Chuan-Kai & Yu, Limeng, 2022. "A multi-level perspective on 5G transition: The China case," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Leonardo Guevara & Fernando Auat Cheein, 2020. "The Role of 5G Technologies: Challenges in Smart Cities and Intelligent Transportation Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Edward J. Oughton & Ashutosh Jha, 2021. "Supportive 5G Infrastructure Policies are Essential for Universal 6G: Assessment using an Open-source Techno-economic Simulation Model utilizing Remote Sensing," Papers 2102.08086, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    9. Oughton, Edward J. & Comini, Niccolò & Foster, Vivien & Hall, Jim W., 2022. "Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Perpetua S. Wanaswa & Zachary B. Awino & Martin Ogutu & Joseph Owino, 2023. "Technological Innovation and Competitive Advantage: Empirical Evidence from Large Telecommunication Firms," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(10), pages 1-21, February.
    11. erpetua S. Wanaswa & Zachary B. Awino & Martin Ogutu & Joseph Owino, 2023. "Technological Innovation and Strategic Leadership Axis on Competitive Advantage of Telecommunication Enterprises," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(9), pages 1-48, February.
    12. Edward J. Oughton & William Lehr, 2022. "Surveying 5G Techno-Economic Research to Inform the Evaluation of 6G Wireless Technologies," Papers 2201.02272, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    13. Hutajulu, Sahat & Dhewanto, Wawan & Prasetio, Eko Agus, 2020. "Two scenarios for 5G deployment in Indonesia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Kajikawa, Yuya & Mejia, Cristian & Wu, Mengjia & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Academic landscape of Technological Forecasting and Social Change through citation network and topic analyses," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Parcu, Pier Luigi & Innocenti, Niccolò & Carrozza, Chiara, 2022. "Ubiquitous technologies and 5G development. Who is leading the race?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    16. Blind, Knut & Niebel, Crispin, 2022. "5G roll-out failures addressed by innovation policies in the EU," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Cheng, Xiaoyuan & Hu, Yukun & Varga, Liz, 2022. "5G network deployment and the associated energy consumption in the UK: A complex systems’ exploration," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    18. Haldar, Anasuya & Sethi, Narayan, 2022. "Environmental effects of Information and Communication Technology - Exploring the roles of renewable energy, innovation, trade and financial development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Kulmer, Veronika & Seebauer, Sebastian & Hinterreither, Helene & Kortschak, Dominik & Theurl, Michaela C. & Haas, Willi, 2022. "Transforming the s-shape: Identifying and explaining turning points in market diffusion curves of low-carbon technologies in Austria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).

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