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Just another food fad? Expert insights and future scenarios for the plant-based alternative sector

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  • Espey, Amelia
  • Schuenemann, Franziska
  • Weinrich, Ramona

Abstract

Processed plant-based alternatives (PBAs) offer a potential channel to reduce consumption of resource-intensive animal foods and foster sustainable food systems. Previous research considers many facets of the PBA industry, including consumer acceptance, technology, market, and regulatory factors. However, uncertainty remains regarding the long-term potential for the PBA sector to reduce the environmental impacts of food production and displace meat and dairy products. Closing this research gap, we explore PBA sector developments by 2040 related to technology and raw materials, innovation and business ecosystems, consumer behavior and demographics, and policy and regulations. We employ a real-time Delphi analysis with 17 projections and analyze projections receiving consensus. Then, we conduct a hierarchical cluster analysis to explore sources of expert disagreement and identify four narratives. For Cluster 1, a consolidated, globally integrated PBA sector concentrates on replicating animal-based foods. Cluster 2 focuses on achieving cost parity with animal-based foods through upscaling and policy. Cluster 3 emphasizes health and environmental concerns influencing processing technologies and ingredients. Cluster 4 highlights investment in diverse raw materials and technologies. Our findings underscore the value of engaging experts to gain insights into the potential for emerging technologies and sectors to foster sustainable food systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Espey, Amelia & Schuenemann, Franziska & Weinrich, Ramona, 2026. "Just another food fad? Expert insights and future scenarios for the plant-based alternative sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:223:y:2026:i:c:s0040162525004597
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124428
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