IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v173y2021ics0040162521004844.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Technological development pathway for a low-carbon primary aluminum industry in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Biying
  • Zhao, Zihao
  • Zhang, Shuai
  • An, Runying
  • Chen, Jingming
  • Li, Ru
  • Zhao, Guangpu

Abstract

China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum and its production will continue to grow in the future. It is very important to optimize the technological development pathway for the low-carbon transition of primary aluminum industry given its continuing increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions. To that end, this study develops a bottom-up model, named National Energy Technology- Aluminum (NET-AL) model. The energy saving potential for three types of strategies are evaluated, including eliminating backward-production capacity, promoting advanced technology, and optimizing industry power structure. The key results are as follows: (1) All emission reduction strategies indicate that CO2 emissions could peak in 2025, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 5.3% by 2050; (2) The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving. The role of promoting seven-effect tube evaporation technology and energy-saving combination technology of new conductivity structure are emphasized. Optimizing the power structure can effectively reduce indirect CO2 emissions, in which the largest penetration of hydropower-aluminum joint production is suggested to be 6.5%; (3) The joint impacts of the discussed three strategies, could not only lead to energy saving, but also brings economic benefits for China's primary aluminum industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Biying & Zhao, Zihao & Zhang, Shuai & An, Runying & Chen, Jingming & Li, Ru & Zhao, Guangpu, 2021. "Technological development pathway for a low-carbon primary aluminum industry in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:173:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521004844
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521004844
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Biying Yu & Guangpu Zhao & Runying An, 2019. "Framing the picture of energy consumption in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1469-1490, December.
    2. An, Runying & Yu, Biying & Li, Ru & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Potential of energy savings and CO2 emission reduction in China’s iron and steel industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 862-880.
    3. Tang, Baojun & Li, Ru & Yu, Biying & An, Runying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "How to peak carbon emissions in China's power sector: A regional perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 365-381.
    4. Chen, Jing-Ming & Yu, Biying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Energy technology roadmap for ethylene industry in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 160-174.
    5. Dutta, Monica & Mukherjee, Saptarshi, 2010. "An outlook into energy consumption in large scale industries in India: The cases of steel, aluminium and cement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7286-7298, November.
    6. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Liu, Liru & Aye, Lu & Lu, Zhongwu & Zhang, Peihong, 2006. "Effect of material flows on energy intensity in process industries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1870-1882.
    8. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Wei Wei & Steven J. Davis & Philippe Ciais & Jin Bai & Shushi Peng & Qiang Zhang & Klaus Hubacek & Gregg Marland & Robert J. Andres & Douglas Crawford-Brown & Jintai Lin & Hongya, 2015. "Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 524(7565), pages 335-338, August.
    9. Ashkenazi, Dana, 2019. "How aluminum changed the world: A metallurgical revolution through technological and cultural perspectives," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 101-113.
    10. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Hang, Wen, 2016. "GHG emissions from primary aluminum production in China: Regional disparity and policy implications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 264-272.
    11. Li, Qiang & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Huiquan & He, Peng, 2017. "CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 225-235.
    12. Liu, Liru & Aye, Lu & Lu, Zhongwu & Zhang, Peihong, 2006. "Analysis of the overall energy intensity of alumina refinery process using unit process energy intensity and product ratio method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1167-1176.
    13. Liu, Zhe & Geng, Yong & Adams, Michelle & Dong, Liang & Sun, Lina & Zhao, Jingjing & Dong, Huijuan & Wu, Jiao & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Uncovering driving forces on greenhouse gas emissions in China’ aluminum industry from the perspective of life cycle analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 253-263.
    14. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Xiao-Yi & Yu, Biying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "Sustainable development pathway for intercity passenger transport: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    15. Du, Kerui & Li, Pengzhen & Yan, Zheming, 2019. "Do green technology innovations contribute to carbon dioxide emission reduction? Empirical evidence from patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 297-303.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biying Yu & Zihao Zhao & Yi-Ming Wei & Lan-Cui Liu & Qingyu Zhao & Shuo Xu & Jia-Ning Kang & Hua Liao, 2023. "Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Wang, Xiaoyang & Yu, Biying & An, Runying & Sun, Feihu & Xu, Shuo, 2022. "An integrated analysis of China’s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Guo, Jianxin & Tan, Xianchun & Zhu, Kaiwei & Cheng, Yonglong, 2024. "Integrated management of abatement technology investment and resource extraction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Song, Yi & Zhang, Zhouyi & Zhang, Yijun & Cheng, Jinhua, 2022. "Technological innovation and supply of critical metals: A perspective of industrial chains," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Yu, Biying & Tan, Jin-Xiao & Zhang, Shitong, 2024. "Uncertainties in the technological pathway towards low-carbon freight transport under carbon neutral target in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    6. Li, Shupeng & Wang, Zhe & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Analysis of the quantity and spatial characterization of aluminum in-use stocks in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Shen, Angxing & Zhang, Jihong, 2024. "Technologies for CO2 emission reduction and low-carbon development in primary aluminum industry in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    8. Hoffmann, Stefan & Lasarov, Wassili & Reimers, Hanna, 2022. "Carbon footprint tracking apps. What drives consumers' adoption intention?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen, Angxing & Zhang, Jihong, 2024. "Technologies for CO2 emission reduction and low-carbon development in primary aluminum industry in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    2. Wang, Xiaoyang & Yu, Biying & An, Runying & Sun, Feihu & Xu, Shuo, 2022. "An integrated analysis of China’s iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    3. Li, Xi & Yu, Biying, 2019. "Peaking CO2 emissions for China's urban passenger transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Jing-Ming Chen & Biying Yu & Yi-Ming Wei, 2019. "CO2 emissions accounting for the chemical industry: an empirical analysis for China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1327-1343, December.
    5. Nadiia Charkovska & Mariia Halushchak & Rostyslav Bun & Zbigniew Nahorski & Tomohiro Oda & Matthias Jonas & Petro Topylko, 2019. "A high-definition spatially explicit modelling approach for national greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes: reducing the errors and uncertainties in global emission modelling," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 907-939, August.
    6. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Xiao-Yi & Yu, Biying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "Sustainable development pathway for intercity passenger transport: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    7. Li, Shupeng & Niu, Liping & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Trajectory, driving forces, and mitigation potential of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's primary aluminum industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    8. Wu, Rui & Geng, Yong & Cui, Xiaowei & Gao, Ziyan & Liu, Zhiqing, 2019. "Reasons for recent stagnancy of carbon emissions in China's industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 457-466.
    9. Yu, Biying & Tan, Jin-Xiao & Zhang, Shitong, 2024. "Uncertainties in the technological pathway towards low-carbon freight transport under carbon neutral target in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    10. Wang, Yihan & Chen, Chen & Tao, Yuan & Wen, Zongguo & Chen, Bin & Zhang, Hong, 2019. "A many-objective optimization of industrial environmental management using NSGA-III: A case of China’s iron and steel industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 46-56.
    11. An, Runying & Yu, Biying & Li, Ru & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2018. "Potential of energy savings and CO2 emission reduction in China’s iron and steel industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 862-880.
    12. Adedayo Johnson Ogungbile & Geoffrey Qiping Shen & Ibrahim Yahaya Wuni & Jin Xue & Jingke Hong, 2021. "A Hybrid Framework for Direct CO 2 Emissions Quantification in China’s Construction Sector," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-22, November.
    13. Guoli Xu & Cora Un In Wong & Xintong Xu, 2023. "A Comprehensive Evaluation and Empirical Research on Dual Carbon Emission Reduction under Digital Empowerment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, April.
    14. Biying Yu & Guangpu Zhao & Runying An, 2019. "Framing the picture of energy consumption in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1469-1490, December.
    15. Yanming Sun & Shixian Liu & Lei Li, 2022. "Grey Correlation Analysis of Transportation Carbon Emissions under the Background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-24, April.
    16. Shkolnikov, E.I. & Zhuk, A.Z. & Vlaskin, M.S., 2011. "Aluminum as energy carrier: Feasibility analysis and current technologies overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4611-4623.
    17. Zhang, Pengfei & Cai, Wenqiu & Yao, Mingtao & Wang, Zhiyou & Yang, Luzhen & Wei, Wendong, 2020. "Urban carbon emissions associated with electricity consumption in Beijing and the driving factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    18. Eheliyagoda, Disna & Li, Jinhui & Geng, Yong & Zeng, Xianlai, 2022. "The role of China's aluminum recycling on sustainable resource and emission pathways," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Sheng Zhou & Alun Gu & Qing Tong & Yuefeng Guo & Xinyang Wei, 2022. "Multi‐scenario simulation on reducing CO2 emissions from China's major manufacturing industries targeting 2060," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 850-861, June.
    20. Tingru Yang & Wenling Liu, 2019. "Health Effects of Energy Intensive Sectors and the Potential Health Co-Benefits of a Low Carbon Industrial Transition in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-18, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:173:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521004844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.