IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v163y2021ics0040162520313160.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multidimensional Scientometric indicators for the detection of emerging research topics

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Haiyun
  • Winnink, Jos
  • Yue, Zenghui
  • Zhang, Huiling
  • Pang, Hongshen

Abstract

The detection of emerging research topics (ERTs) is an important step in the promotion of potentially promising research. In this paper, we first distinguish the concept of ERT from that of common-related topics. We discuss multi-dimensional and practical bibliometric indicators to discover high-impact ERTs at a fine level of granularity. To this end, we focus on three objectives. First, we determine a method for identifying research topics from scholarly publications. Second, we developed a method for uncovering ERTs. Third, we conduct an experimental analysis to demonstrate the operationalization of our method. High-impact ERTs are selected based on the advice of field experts. Then, we divide the identified ERTs into seven patterns and propose different research and development (R&D) strategies for each topic. In general, previous studies have mainly focused on the attributes of “novelty” and “growth.” Compared with extant ERT identification analysis, this study pays more attention to the future economic and social impact of ERTs and the reduction of uncertainty. This article is the first attempt to devise an ERT detection framework by comprehensively measuring its five characteristics (radical novelty, relatively fast growth, persistence and coherence, potential high impact, and uncertainty and ambiguity reduction) and proposing feasible operational indicators and processes. Thus, different R&D layout strategies for different economic and social-impact topics are outlined herein, which contribute significantly to the development of science and technology policies. The evidence presented suggests that our methodology can be used by decision makers to evaluate emerging scientific research.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Haiyun & Winnink, Jos & Yue, Zenghui & Zhang, Huiling & Pang, Hongshen, 2021. "Multidimensional Scientometric indicators for the detection of emerging research topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520313160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520313160
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanning Guo & Scott Weingart & Katy Börner, 2011. "Mixed-indicators model for identifying emerging research areas," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 421-435, October.
    2. Bolger, Fergus & Wright, George, 2017. "Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 230-243.
    3. Chaomei Chen, 2006. "CiteSpace II: Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 57(3), pages 359-377, February.
    4. Ludo Waltman & Nees Eck, 2013. "A smart local moving algorithm for large-scale modularity-based community detection," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 86(11), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Ivan Jarić & Jelena Knežević-Jarić & Mirjana Lenhardt, 2014. "Relative age of references as a tool to identify emerging research fields with an application to the field of ecology and environmental sciences," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(2), pages 519-529, August.
    6. Joung, Junegak & Kim, Kwangsoo, 2017. "Monitoring emerging technologies for technology planning using technical keyword based analysis from patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 281-292.
    7. Xu, Shuo & Hao, Liyuan & An, Xin & Yang, Guancan & Wang, Feifei, 2019. "Emerging research topics detection with multiple machine learning models," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4).
    8. Ludo Waltman & Nees Jan Eck, 2012. "A new methodology for constructing a publication-level classification system of science," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(12), pages 2378-2392, December.
    9. Ying Huang & Donghua Zhu & Yue Qian & Yi Zhang & Alan L. Porter & Yuqin Liu & Ying Guo, 2017. "A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(1), pages 185-204, April.
    10. Richard Klavans & Kevin W. Boyack, 2017. "Which Type of Citation Analysis Generates the Most Accurate Taxonomy of Scientific and Technical Knowledge?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 68(4), pages 984-998, April.
    11. Sanjay K. Arora & Jan Youtie & Philip Shapira & Lidan Gao & TingTing Ma, 2013. "Entry strategies in an emerging technology: a pilot web-based study of graphene firms," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 95(3), pages 1189-1207, June.
    12. Porter, Alan L. & Garner, Jon & Carley, Stephen F. & Newman, Nils C., 2019. "Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 628-643.
    13. Qi Wang, 2018. "A bibliometric model for identifying emerging research topics," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 69(2), pages 290-304, February.
    14. Michel Zitt & Alain Lelu & Elise Bassecoulard, 2011. "Hybrid citation-word representations in science mapping: Portolan charts of research fields?," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 62(1), pages 19-39, January.
    15. Theresa Velden & Kevin W. Boyack & Jochen Gläser & Rob Koopman & Andrea Scharnhorst & Shenghui Wang, 2017. "Comparison of topic extraction approaches and their results," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(2), pages 1169-1221, May.
    16. Lee, Changyong & Kwon, Ohjin & Kim, Myeongjung & Kwon, Daeil, 2018. "Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 291-303.
    17. Alba Santa Soriano & Carolina Lorenzo Álvarez & Rosa María Torres Valdés, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis to identify an emerging research area: Public Relations Intelligence—a challenge to strengthen technological observatories in the network society," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1591-1614, June.
    18. Schoemaker, Paul J.H. & Day, George S. & Snyder, Scott A., 2013. "Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 815-824.
    19. Small, Henry & Boyack, Kevin W. & Klavans, Richard, 2014. "Identifying emerging topics in science and technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1450-1467.
    20. Ivana Roche & Dominique Besagni & Claire François & Marianne Hörlesberger & Edgar Schiebel, 2010. "Identification and characterisation of technological topics in the field of Molecular Biology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 82(3), pages 663-676, March.
    21. Serhat Burmaoglu & Olivier Sartenaer & Alan Porter & Munan Li, 2019. "Analysing the theoretical roots of technology emergence: an evolutionary perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 97-118, April.
    22. Sara Reardon, 2014. "Text-mining offers clues to success," Nature, Nature, vol. 509(7501), pages 410-410, May.
    23. Zhang, Yi & Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2019. "Discovering and forecasting interactions in big data research: A learning-enhanced bibliometric study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 795-807.
    24. Yaqub, Ohid, 2018. "Serendipity: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 169-179.
    25. Hai-Yun Xu & Zeng-Hui Yue & Chao Wang & Kun Dong & Hong-Shen Pang & Zhengbiao Han, 2017. "Multi-source data fusion study in scientometrics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(2), pages 773-792, May.
    26. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    27. Yoshiyuki Takeda & Yuya Kajikawa, 2009. "Optics: a bibliometric approach to detect emerging research domains and intellectual bases," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 78(3), pages 543-558, March.
    28. Chang-Ping Hu & Ji-Ming Hu & Sheng-Li Deng & Yong Liu, 2013. "A co-word analysis of library and information science in China," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 97(2), pages 369-382, November.
    29. Christian Weismayer & Ilona Pezenka, 2017. "Identifying emerging research fields: a longitudinal latent semantic keyword analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(3), pages 1757-1785, December.
    30. Ludo Waltman & Nees Jan van Eck, 2012. "A new methodology for constructing a publication‐level classification system of science," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(12), pages 2378-2392, December.
    31. Yan, Erjia, 2014. "Research dynamics: Measuring the continuity and popularity of research topics," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 98-110.
    32. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho, 2018. "Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 285-296.
    33. Zhigao Liu & Yimei Yin & Weidong Liu & Michael Dunford, 2015. "Visualizing the intellectual structure and evolution of innovation systems research: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(1), pages 135-158, April.
    34. Xu, Haiyun & Winnink, Jos & Yue, Zenghui & Liu, Ziqiang & Yuan, Guoting, 2020. "Topic-linked innovation paths in science and technology," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2).
    35. Henry Small, 1973. "Co‐citation in the scientific literature: A new measure of the relationship between two documents," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 24(4), pages 265-269, July.
    36. Kwon, Heeyeul & Kim, Jieun & Park, Yongtae, 2017. "Applying LSA text mining technique in envisioning social impacts of emerging technologies: The case of drone technology," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 60, pages 15-28.
    37. Shino Iwami & Junichiro Mori & Ichiro Sakata & Yuya Kajikawa, 2014. "Detection method of emerging leading papers using time transition," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(2), pages 1515-1533, November.
    38. Apreda, Riccardo & Bonaccorsi, Andrea & dell'Orletta, Felice & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2019. "Expert forecast and realized outcomes in technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 277-288.
    39. Woo Hyoung Lee, 2008. "How to identify emerging research fields using scientometrics: An example in the field of Information Security," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 76(3), pages 503-525, September.
    40. Mooweon Rhee, 2004. "Network Updating and Exploratory Learning Environment," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 933-949, September.
    41. Mu-Hsuan Huang & Chia-Pin Chang, 2014. "Detecting research fronts in OLED field using bibliographic coupling with sliding window," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(3), pages 1721-1744, March.
    42. Shuo Xu & Junwan Liu & Dongsheng Zhai & Xin An & Zheng Wang & Hongshen Pang, 2018. "Overlapping thematic structures extraction with mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 61-84, October.
    43. Jacques Mairesse & Michele Pezzoni, 2018. "Novelty in Science: The Impact of French Physicists' Novel Articles," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-23, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    44. Dahlin, Kristina B. & Behrens, Dean M., 2005. "When is an invention really radical?: Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 717-737, June.
    45. Kristina Dahlin & Deans M. Behrens, 2005. "When is an invention really radical? Defining and measuring technological radicalness," Post-Print hal-00480416, HAL.
    46. Ji-ping Gao & Kun Ding & Li Teng & Jie Pang, 2012. "Hybrid documents co-citation analysis: making sense of the interaction between science and technology in technology diffusion," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 93(2), pages 459-471, November.
    47. Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Yi & Lian, Xiangpeng & Guo, Ying, 2019. "An assessment of technology forecasting: Revisiting earlier analyses on dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 831-843.
    48. Huang, Mu-Hsuan & Yang, Hsiao-Wen & Chen, Dar-Zen, 2015. "Increasing science and technology linkage in fuel cells: A cross citation analysis of papers and patents," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 237-249.
    49. Stephen F. Carley & Nils C. Newman & Alan L. Porter & Jon G. Garner, 2018. "An indicator of technical emergence," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 35-49, April.
    50. Michel Zitt & Alain Lelu & Elise Bassecoulard, 2011. "Hybrid citation‐word representations in science mapping: Portolan charts of research fields?," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 62(1), pages 19-39, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ante, Lennart, 2022. "The relationship between readability and scientific impact: Evidence from emerging technology discourses," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1).
    2. Hu, Zewen & Zhou, Xiji & Lin, Angela, 2023. "Evaluation and identification of potential high-value patents in the field of integrated circuits using a multidimensional patent indicators pre-screening strategy and machine learning approaches," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    3. Xu, Haiyun & Yue, Zenghui & Pang, Hongshen & Elahi, Ehsan & Li, Jing & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Integrative model for discovering linked topics in science and technology," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    4. Mario Coccia, 2021. "Evolution and structure of research fields driven by crises and environmental threats: the COVID-19 research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(12), pages 9405-9429, December.
    5. Ryosuke L. Ohniwa & Kunio Takeyasu & Aiko Hibino, 2022. "Researcher dynamics in the generation of emerging topics in life sciences and medicine," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(2), pages 871-884, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Shuo & Hao, Liyuan & Yang, Guancan & Lu, Kun & An, Xin, 2021. "A topic models based framework for detecting and forecasting emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Shuo Xu & Liyuan Hao & Xin An & Hongshen Pang & Ting Li, 2020. "Review on emerging research topics with key-route main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 607-624, January.
    3. Xu, Shuo & Hao, Liyuan & An, Xin & Yang, Guancan & Wang, Feifei, 2019. "Emerging research topics detection with multiple machine learning models," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4).
    4. Serhat Burmaoglu & Olivier Sartenaer & Alan Porter & Munan Li, 2019. "Analysing the theoretical roots of technology emergence: an evolutionary perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 97-118, April.
    5. Lu, Kun & Yang, Guancan & Wang, Xue, 2022. "Topics emerged in the biomedical field and their characteristics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Kwon, Seokbeom & Liu, Xiaoyu & Porter, Alan L. & Youtie, Jan, 2019. "Research addressing emerging technological ideas has greater scientific impact," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    7. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    8. Porter, Alan L. & Garner, Jon & Carley, Stephen F. & Newman, Nils C., 2019. "Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 628-643.
    9. Sjögårde, Peter & Ahlgren, Per, 2018. "Granularity of algorithmically constructed publication-level classifications of research publications: Identification of topics," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 133-152.
    10. Wooseok Jang & Yongtae Park & Hyeonju Seol, 2021. "Identifying emerging technologies using expert opinions on the future: A topic modeling and fuzzy clustering approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6505-6532, August.
    11. Porter, Alan L. & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C., 2020. "Measuring tech emergence: A contest," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Park, Inchae & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2022. "Tracing the emergence of new technology: A comparative analysis of five technological domains," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    13. Zhang, Yi & Wu, Mengjia & Miao, Wen & Huang, Lu & Lu, Jie, 2021. "Bi-layer network analytics: A methodology for characterizing emerging general-purpose technologies," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    14. Huang, Lu & Chen, Xiang & Ni, Xingxing & Liu, Jiarun & Cao, Xiaoli & Wang, Changtian, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics of co-word networks for emerging topic identification," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Gao, Qiang & Liang, Zhentao & Wang, Ping & Hou, Jingrui & Chen, Xiuxiu & Liu, Manman, 2021. "Potential index: Revealing the future impact of research topics based on current knowledge networks," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3).
    16. Peter Sjögårde & Fereshteh Didegah, 2022. "The association between topic growth and citation impact of research publications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(4), pages 1903-1921, April.
    17. June Young Lee & Sejung Ahn & Dohyun Kim, 2021. "Deep learning-based prediction of future growth potential of technologies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, June.
    18. Michel Zitt, 2015. "Meso-level retrieval: IR-bibliometrics interplay and hybrid citation-words methods in scientific fields delineation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(3), pages 2223-2245, March.
    19. Ryosuke L. Ohniwa & Kunio Takeyasu & Aiko Hibino, 2022. "Researcher dynamics in the generation of emerging topics in life sciences and medicine," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(2), pages 871-884, February.
    20. Li, Munan & Porter, Alan L. & Suominen, Arho & Burmaoglu, Serhat & Carley, Stephen, 2021. "An exploratory perspective to measure the emergence degree for a specific technology based on the philosophy of swarm intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520313160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.