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Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry


  • Škare, Marinko
  • Soriano, Domingo Riberio
  • Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata


Our paper is among the first to measure the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Using panel structural vector auto-regression (PSVAR) (Pedroni, 2013) on data from 1995 to 2019 in 185 countries and system dynamic modeling (real-time data parameters connected to COVID-19), we estimate the impact of the pandemic crisis on the tourism industry worldwide. Past pandemic crises operated mostly through idiosyncratic shocks' channels, exposing domestic tourism sectors to large adverse shocks. Once domestic shocks perished (zero infection cases), inbound arrivals revived immediately. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is different; and recovery of the tourism industry worldwide will take more time than the average expected recovery period of 10 months. Private and public policy support must be coordinated to assure capacity building and operational sustainability of the travel tourism sector during 2020–2021. COVID-19 proves that pandemic outbreaks have a much larger destructive impact on the travel and tourism industry than previous studies indicate. Tourism managers must carefully assess the effects of epidemics on business and develop new risk management methods to deal with the crisis. Furthermore, during 2020–2021, private and public policy support must be coordinated to sustain pre-COVID-19 operational levels of the tourism and travel sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Škare, Marinko & Soriano, Domingo Riberio & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520312956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    COVID-19; Pandemic crises; Panel structural vector autoregression (PSVAR); System dynamics; Tourism industry; Financial cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development


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