Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain

Using the Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and Dynamics of Land System (DLS) models, we simulated land-use structures and patterns in Shandong Province in 2025 under three scenarios: baseline, resource consumption, and green development. Compared with the situation in 2015, a slight decrease in grassland, cultivated, and unused land was evident under the green development scenario. Forest land cover remained basically unchanged, whereas water bodies and construction land increased slightly. Under the baseline and resource consumption scenarios, all of the above land-use types showed a decreasing trend apart from construction land, which rapidly increased. Changes in the land-use allocation pattern demonstrated overall consistency and local differences under these scenarios. Among them, most changes in construction and cultivated land occurred around cities, with changes in forests and grassland mainly distributed in the central and northeastern regions. Changes in water bodies and unused land mainly occurred in the northern Yellow River basin and in northeastern coastal areas. Local differences were evident under the green development scenario, with conversion of a small amount of cultivated land in the central region into forests and grassland, and transformation of a small area of cultivated land in the northeastern coastal area into water bodies. The study's findings provide a scientific projection of competitive land-use relations in Shandong Province over the next decade under different land expropriation price and regulation scenarios, which can guide policy formulation and the selection of pathways for achieving sustainable regional development.