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Dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects


  • Bojnec, Štefan


The micro–macro link is provided for the impact of the dual-use defence-civilian exports of products and services on the Slovenian economy. The unique firm-level data on the dual-use export is integrated in the symmetric 60 groups of activities input–output tables. The classification of the economic activities is used to integrate data on the firm-to-firm dual-use export transactions in the symmetric input–output coding system to avoid the double counting. The input–output modelling approach is used for the measuring of the direct input–output flows and the dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects. The direct and indirect effects are analysed by the economic activities, technological intensity of the products and services, and statistical regions in Slovenia. Comparisons with alternative non dual-use high tech are analysed by economic activities in terms of value-added and labour productivity. The dual-use export is associated with high technologically intensive suppliers and sub-suppliers of defence-civilian goods and services. The empirical estimations can serve as a guide in questions of comparing with alternative in economic policy design when investigating trade-offs between allocation of expenditures for defence equipment and their opportunity costs for non dual-use of high tech products and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Bojnec, Štefan, 2016. "Dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 287-296.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:102:y:2016:i:c:p:287-296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.004

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Flipse, Steven M. & van der Sanden, Maarten C.A. & Osseweijer, Patricia, 2014. "Improving industrial R&D practices with social and ethical aspects: Aligning key performance indicators with social and ethical aspects in food technology R&D," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 185-197.
    2. Anthony Turner, 2004. "Estimated UK employment dependent on ministry of defence expenditure and defence exports," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 331-342.
    3. ten Raa,Thijs, 2006. "The Economics of Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521602679, April.
    4. Malcolm Chalmers & Neil V. Davies & Keith Hartley & Chris Wilkinson, 2002. "The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 305-342, September.
    5. Costantini, Valeria & Liberati, Paolo, 2014. "Technology transfer, institutions and development," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 26-48.
    6. Lau, Antonio K.W. & Lo, William, 2015. "Regional innovation system, absorptive capacity and innovation performance: An empirical study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 99-114.
    7. Georghiou, Luke & Edler, Jakob & Uyarra, Elvira & Yeow, Jillian, 2014. "Policy instruments for public procurement of innovation: Choice, design and assessment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-12.
    8. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2004. "Measuring performance in defense-sector companies in a small NATO member country," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 112-128, May.
    9. Blom, Martin & Castellacci, Fulvio & Fevolden, Arne Martin, 2013. "The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1579-1592.
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    More about this item


    Dual-use products and services; Defence-civilian exports; Input–output modelling; Indirect effects; Slovenia;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F29 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Other
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • H59 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Other
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes


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