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The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports

Author

Listed:
  • Malcolm Chalmers
  • Neil V. Davies
  • Keith Hartley
  • Chris Wilkinson

Abstract

This study examines the economic costs and benefits to the UK of a 50 per cent cut in UK defence exports from the average level of 1998 and 1999. The net impact on the government budget is estimated to be an ongoing loss of between around £40 million and £100 million a year: around 0.2-0.4 per cent of the total UK defence budget. In addition, there is estimated to be a one-off net adjustment cost, spread over five years, of between £0.9 billion and £1.4 billion. A further more speculative adjustment cost (estimated at around £1.1 billion) could result if the loss of income associated with the ‘terms-of-trade’ effect were also included. In terms of the wider debate about defence exports, the results of this study suggest first that the economic effects of the reduction in defence exports are relatively small and largely one-off, and secondly that the balance of arguments about UK defence exports should be determined mainly by non-economic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Malcolm Chalmers & Neil V. Davies & Keith Hartley & Chris Wilkinson, 2002. "The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 305-342, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:23:y:2002:i:3:p:305-342
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chisari, Omar & Estache, Antonio & Romero, Carlos, 1999. "Winners and Losers from the Privatization and Regulation of Utilities: Lessons from a General Equilibrium Model of Argentina," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 357-378, May.
    2. Antonio Estache & Gines De Rus, 2000. "Privatization and Regulation of Transport Infrastructure : Guidelines for Policymakers and Regulators," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15199.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Jackson, 2004. "The future of the defence firm: the case of the UK aerospace industry," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 519-534.
    2. García-Alonso, María D.C. & Levine, Paul, 2008. "Strategic procurement, openness and market structure," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1180-1190, September.
    3. Bojnec, Štefan, 2016. "Dual-use products export multipliers with the indirect effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 287-296.
    4. G. Sharp, 2005. "The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports: a comment," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 59-66.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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