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Noise-induced transitions in a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model

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  • Jungeilges, Jochen
  • Ryazanova, Tatyana

Abstract

We motivate and specify a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model. Our analysis focusses on a subset of the parameter space where several attractors coexist. Applying a semi-numerical approach based on the stochastic sensitivity function and confidence domains due to Milstein and Ryashko (1995), we study random transitions between stable attractors in the context of the Goodwin-type economy embedded in an uncertain environment. Relying on a mix of analytical considerations and simulations we demonstrate that under weak noise levels regime switching is a prominent feature in the presence of low saving rates. Moreover, we explain how increased uncertainty can induce an essentially unpredictable income process out of an apparently stable high-income level situation. All dynamic phenomena are explained in terms of key concepts constituting the stochastic sensitivity function method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana, 2017. "Noise-induced transitions in a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:103-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-161, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana, 2019. "Transitions in consumption behaviors in a peer-driven stochastic consumer network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 144-154.
    2. Willi Semmler & Fabio Della Rossa & Giuseppe Orlando & Gabriel R. Padro Rosario & Levent Kockesen, 2023. "Endogenous Economic Resilience, Loss of Resilience, Persistent Cycles, Multiple Attractors, and Disruptive Contractions," Working Papers 2309, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Jochen Jungeilges & Tatyana Ryazanova, 2018. "Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 355-380, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Van-der-Pol oscillator; Co-existing attractors; Stochastic sensitivity analysis; Noise induced random transitions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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