Testing for trends in correlated data
The problem of testing for the significance of a linear trend in the presence of positively correlated errors is considered. Test criteria based on ordinary least squares, conditional maximum likelihood, estimated generalized least squares and maximum likelihood estimates tend to have higher significance levels than nominal levels for positively correlated series of moderate length. In this paper, we study three alternative methods: (a) pre-test, (b) bias-adjusted, and (c) bootstrap-based procedures. A simulation study is used to compare the empirical level and power of different procedures. An example is used to illustrate the procedures.
Volume (Year): 41 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984.
"Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
- Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983. "Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1978. "A Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 51-58, January.
- Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 788, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Park, Rolla Edward & Mitchell, Bridger M., 1980. "Estimating the autocorrelated error model with trended data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 185-201, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)