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Contrarian strategy and overreaction in foreign exchange markets

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  • Parikakis, George S.
  • Syriopoulos, Theodore

Abstract

This paper investigates patterns to assist investors to forecast future exchange rate movements. We test for overreaction and underreaction examining exchange rate changes following excess 1-day fluctuations for currencies in two emerging (Turkey, Brazil) and two developed (US, UK) countries. Using euro as the base currency, we identify that the Turkish lira, the Brazilian real and the US dollar overreact, while the British pound underreacts. In the case of British pound, asymmetric responses and lack of volatility are two crucial factors to reject overreaction. Also, we find that contrarian strategy can be used in all currency markets for profitable investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Parikakis, George S. & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2008. "Contrarian strategy and overreaction in foreign exchange markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 319-324, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:22:y:2008:i:3:p:319-324
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    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Abnormal Returns and Stock Price Movements: Some Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8783, CESifo.
    3. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Demirer, Rıza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2017. "Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1445-1454.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2021. "Gold and oil prices: abnormal returns, momentum and contrarian effects," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(3), pages 353-368, September.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    7. Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "A calendar effect: Weekend overreaction (and subsequent reversal) in spot FX rates," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 158-167.
    8. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
    9. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    10. Lee, Namhoon & Choi, Wonseok & Pae, Yuntaek, 2021. "Market efficiency in foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Ali Fayyaz Munir & Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor & Mohamed Albaity & Izlin Ismail, 2021. "Financial liberalization and the behavior of reversals in emerging market economies," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(6), pages 1565-1582, January.
    12. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L. & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2021. "Price overreactions in the commodity futures market: An intraday analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.

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