IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v28y2014i3p445-458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When Do Opening Stock Returns Tend to be Higher?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Kudryavtsev

Abstract

In this study, I make an effort to formulate a trading rule that would make use of some systematic interday patterns in individual stocks' opening returns. I analyze intraday price data on all the stocks that were S&P 500 Index constituents during the period from 1993 to 2012. I document that if the general market direction of the previous day's opening session is controlled for, then a stock's opening return tends to be higher if, on the previous trading day, its opening return was relatively high (either positive, or higher than the same day's opening market return) and its open-to-close return was relatively low (either non-positive, or lower than or equal to the same day's open-to-close market return). Finally, for the sampling period, I construct two different investment portfolios involving a long position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be high and a short position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be low. Both portfolios are found to yield significantly positive returns, providing evidence for the practical applicability of the documented patterns in opening stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2014. "When Do Opening Stock Returns Tend to be Higher?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 445-458, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2014:i:3:p:445-458
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2014.905620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10168737.2014.905620
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10168737.2014.905620?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    3. Pagano, Michael S. & Peng, Lin & Schwartz, Robert A., 2008. "The quality of price formation at market openings and closings: Evidence from the Nasdaq stock market," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/45, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Perry, Philip R., 1985. "Portfolio Serial Correlation and Nonsynchronous Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 517-523, December.
    5. Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 535-547, December.
    6. Adam Zawadowski & Gyorgy Andor & Janos Kertesz, 2006. "Short-term market reaction after extreme price changes of liquid stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 283-295.
    7. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    8. Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. "Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
    9. Rhee, S. Ghon & Wang, Chi-Jeng, 1997. "The bid-ask bounce effect and the spread size effect: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-258, June.
    10. Bowman, Robert G. & Iverson, David, 1998. "Short-run overreaction in the New Zealand stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 475-491, November.
    11. Kadlec, Gregory B & Patterson, Douglas M, 1999. "A Transactions Data Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 609-630.
    12. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-629.
    13. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    14. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    15. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    16. Grant, James L. & Wolf, Avner & Yu, Susana, 2005. "Intraday price reversals in the US stock index futures market: A 15-year study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1311-1327, May.
    17. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    18. Andrey KUDRYAVTSEV, 2013. "Interday drifts in opening stock returns," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(11(588)), pages 53-72, November.
    19. Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 241-256, June.
    20. Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. "Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
    21. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
    22. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. "Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-553, July.
    23. Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
    24. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 269-283, September.
    25. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrey KUDRYAVTSEV, 2013. "Mechanism Of Autocorrelations Of Individual Stocks' Opening Returns," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 12, pages 37-56, June.
    2. KUDRYAVTSEV Andrey, 2012. "Early To Rise: When Opening Stock Returns Are Higher Than Daily Returns?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 58-73, December.
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2013. "Think About Tomorrow Morning: Opening Stock Returns May Show Reversals," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(50), pages 51-64, December.
    4. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2013. "Stock price reversals following end-of-the-day price moves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 203-205.
    6. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2015. "Informational Content of Open-to-Close Stock Returns," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 5-17.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Short-term momentum (almost) everywhere," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Da, Zhi, 2019. "Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 26-48.
    9. Maderitsch, R., 2015. "Information transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the US: New evidence on time- and state-dependence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 13-36.
    10. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    11. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Palliere, Clement, 2009. "Stock index reaction to large price changes: Evidence from major Asian stock indexes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 444-459, September.
    12. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2018. "Short-Term Price Overreactions: Identification, Testing, Exploitation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 913-940, April.
    14. Joanna Olbryś & Elżbieta Majewska, 2014. "Implications of market frictions: serial correlations in indexes on the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 24(1), pages 51-70.
    15. Hurvich, Cliiford & Wang, Yi, 2006. "A Pure-Jump Transaction-Level Price Model Yielding Cointegration, Leverage, and Nonsynchronous Trading Effects," MPRA Paper 1413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Anderson, Robert M. & Eom, Kyong Shik & Hahn, Sang Buhm & Park, Jong-Ho, 2007. "Stock Return Autocorrelation is Not Spurious," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2k7414sv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    17. Dyl, Edward A. & Yuksel, H. Zafer & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2019. "Price reversals and price continuations following large price movements," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-12.
    18. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Steeley, James M., 2014. "Portfolio size, non-trading frequency and portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 56-77.
    20. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015.
    21. Toshiaki Watanabe, 2002. "Margin requirements, positive feedback trading, and stock return autocorrelations: the case of Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 395-403.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:28:y:2014:i:3:p:445-458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.