Early To Rise: When Opening Stock Returns Are Higher Than Daily Returns?
In present study, I explore intraday behavior of stock prices. In particular, I try to shed light on the relationship between the widely-documented U-shaped intraday pattern of stock returns (e.g., Wood et al. (1985), Jain and Joh (1988), Pagano et al. (2008)) and the well-known concept of stock price overreaction resulting in potentially profitable investment strategies based on short-term price reversals (e.g., Zarowin (1989), Cox and Peterson (1994), Park (1995), Nam et al. (2001)). Employing the stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Index, I document that for the majority of stocks, open-to-close returns tend to be significantly lower, and in most cases negative, if on that respective day their opening returns are higher than the average or median opening return on the stocks in the sample. That is, relatively high opening stock returns may serve an indication for subsequent intraday price reversals and for even more pronounced intraday U-shaped return pattern. Based on these findings, I suggest two versions of a daily-adjusted reversal-based investment strategy yielding significantly higher returns and with significantly less risk, than the strategies involving passively holding the index or an equally-weighted portfolio of stocks.
Volume (Year): 7 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences Dumbravii Avenue, No 17, postal code 550324, Sibiu, Romania|
Phone: 004 0269 210375
Fax: 004 0269 210375
Web page: http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-553, July.
- Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 269-283, September.
- Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, 04.
- Park, Jinwoo, 1995. "A Market Microstructure Explanation for Predictable Variations in Stock Returns following Large Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(02), pages 241-256, June.
- Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-629.
- Perry, Philip R., 1985. "Portfolio Serial Correlation and Nonsynchronous Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 517-523, December.
- Kadlec, Gregory B & Patterson, Douglas M, 1999. "A Transactions Data Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 609-630.
- Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
- Rhee, S. Ghon & Wang, Chi-Jeng, 1997. "The bid-ask bounce effect and the spread size effect: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-258, June.
- Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
- Nam, Kiseok & Pyun, Chong Soo & Avard, Stephen L., 2001. "Asymmetric reverting behavior of short-horizon stock returns: An evidence of stock market overreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 807-824, April.
- Atchison, Michael D & Butler, Kirt C & Simonds, Richard R, 1987. " Nonsynchronous Security Trading and Market Index Autocorrelation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 111-118, March.
- Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, "undated".
"An Econometric Analysis of Nonsyschronous-Trading,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
19-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Atkins, Allen B. & Dyl, Edward A., 1990. "Price Reversals, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 535-547, December.
- Conrad, Jennifer S & Hameed, Allaudeen & Niden, Cathy, 1994. " Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1305-1329, September.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
- Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March.
- Jose Garcia Blandon, 2007. "Return autocorrelation anomalies in two European stock markets," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 22(1), pages 59-70, June.
- Cox, Don R & Peterson, David R, 1994. " Stock Returns Following Large One-Day Declines: Evidence on Short-Term Reversals and Longer-Term Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 255-267, March.
- Bruce N. Lehmann, 1988. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:7:y:2012:i:3:p:58-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mihaela Herciu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.