IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v85y2023icp647-663.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there an expiration effect in the bitcoin market?

Author

Listed:
  • Blasco, N.
  • Corredor, P.
  • Satrústegui, N.

Abstract

This paper studies the monthly expiration effect in the bitcoin markets. The emergence of trading in bitcoin futures in regulated markets is an ideal occasion to test this effect on an asset with singular characteristics. Our results with intraday data show that around the time of maturity there are significant changes in the trading volume, volatility and return of bitcoin, an asset that is traded in many exchanges simultaneously. Therefore, there is a clear expiration effect related to bitcoin futures. The closer to the expiration time (shortly beforehand or afterwards), the more intense these effects are. However, in spite of these general results, the expiration effect is not homogeneous across exchanges and depends on the characteristics of the futures contract in question. Robustness tests are also applied to confirm the results. The increasing participation of institutional investors is consistent with our findings, particularly in relation to the expiration effects of cash-settled futures, as these contracts are more appealing for sophisticated investors who could be interested in arbitrage or speculative processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Blasco, N. & Corredor, P. & Satrústegui, N., 2023. "Is there an expiration effect in the bitcoin market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 647-663.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:p:647-663
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.02.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056023000515
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2023.02.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Pagnottoni & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery on Bitcoin markets," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 139-161, November.
    2. Lien, Donald & Tse, Yiu Kuen, 2006. "A survey on physical delivery versus cash settlement in futures contracts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 15-29.
    3. Caihong Xu, 2014. "Expiration‐Day Effects of Stock and Index Futures and Options in Sweden: The Return of the Witches," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(9), pages 868-882, September.
    4. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1992. "Futures Manipulation with "Cash Settlement."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1485-1502, September.
    5. Lin William Cong & Xi Li & Ke Tang & Yang Yang, 2021. "Crypto Wash Trading," Papers 2108.10984, arXiv.org.
    6. Klemkosky, Robert C., 1978. "The Impact of Option Expirations on Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 507-518, September.
    7. Anver Sadath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2011. "Expiration Effects of Stock Futures on the Price and Volume of Underlying Stocks: Evidence from India," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 25-38, July.
    8. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    9. Xiaoyan Ni, Sophie & Pearson, Neil D. & Poteshman, Allen M., 2005. "Stock price clustering on option expiration dates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-87, October.
    10. Per Alkeback & Niclas Hagelin, 2004. "Expiration day effects of index futures and options: evidence from a market with a long settlement period," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 385-396.
    11. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Ajay Pandey, 2013. "Expiration‐Day Effects and the Impact of Short Trading Breaks on Intraday Volatility: Evidence from the Indian Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(11), pages 1046-1070, November.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 61-74, January.
    13. Ying‐Foon Chow & Haynes H. M. Yung & Hua Zhang, 2003. "Expiration day effects: The case of Hong Kong," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 67-86, January.
    14. Donald Lien & Li Yang, 2003. "Options expiration effects and the role of individual share futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1107-1118, November.
    15. Chao Chen & James Williams, 1994. "Triple‐witching hour, the change in expiration timing, and stock market reaction," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 275-292, May.
    16. Riccardo De Blasis & Alexander Webb, 2022. "Arbitrage, contract design, and market structure in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 492-524, March.
    17. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 803-817, July.
    18. Chung, Huimin & Hseu, Mei-Maun, 2008. "Expiration day effects of Taiwan index futures: The case of the Singapore and Taiwan Futures Exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 107-120, April.
    19. Lee, Seungho & Meslmani, Nabil El & Switzer, Lorne N., 2020. "Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2005. "Availability and settlement of individual stock futures and options expiration-day effects: evidence from high-frequency data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 730-747, September.
    21. Golez, Benjamin & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2012. "Pinning in the S&P 500 futures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 566-585.
    22. J.B. Chay & Sol Kim & Hyeuk‐Sun Ryu, 2013. "Can the Indicative Price System Mitigate Expiration‐Day Effects?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 891-910, October.
    23. P. Corredor & P. Lechón & R. Santamaría, 2001. "Option‐Expiration Effects in Small Markets: The Spanish Stock Exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 905-928, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henryk Gurgul & Milena Suliga, 2020. "Impact of futures expiration on underlying stocks: intraday analysis for Warsaw Stock Exchange," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 869-904, September.
    2. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    3. Milena Suliga, 2017. "Price reversal as potential expiration day effect of stock and index futures: evidence from Warsaw Stock Exchange," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(2), pages 201-225.
    4. Matthew Clifton, 2010. "Liquidity and Efficiency During Unusual Market Conditions: An Analysis of Short Selling Restrictions and Expiration-Day Procedures on the London Stock Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 14, July-Dece.
    5. N. Blasco & P. Corredor & N. Satrústegui, 2022. "The witching week of herding on bitcoin exchanges," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Alex Plastun & Ludmila Khomutenko & Serhii Bashlai, 2022. "Is There Any Witching in the Cryptocurrency Market?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Rachna Mahalwala, 2016. "A Study of Expiration-day Effects of Index Derivatives Trading in India," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 15(1), pages 10-19, June.
    8. Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2013. "Returns and option activity over the option-expiration week for S&P 100 stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4226-4240.
    9. Emily Lin & Carl R. Chen, 2019. "Settlement procedures and stock market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 164-185, February.
    10. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    11. Gurmeet Singh & Muneer Shaik, 2020. "Re-examining the Expiration Effects of Index Futures: Evidence from India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 16-23.
    12. Adrian C. H. Lei, 2015. "Price and Volume Effects of Exchange‐Traded Barrier Options: Evidence from Callable Bull/Bear Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1042-1066, November.
    13. Riccardo De Blasis & Alexander Webb, 2022. "Arbitrage, contract design, and market structure in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 492-524, March.
    14. Banerjee, Pradip & Chatrath, Arjun & Christie-David, Rohan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "The effects of options listing and delisting in a short-sale-constrained market: Evidence from the Indian equities markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 157-169.
    15. Efe Caglar Cagli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci, 2021. "Information transmission between bitcoin derivatives and spot markets: high-frequency causality analysis with Fourier approximation," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 394-402.
    16. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    17. Sheridan Titman & Chishen Wei. Wei & Bin Zhao, 2021. "Corporate Actions and the Manipulation of Retail Investors in China: An Analysis of Stock Splits," NBER Working Papers 29212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Huang, Guan-Ying & Gau, Yin-Feng & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2022. "Price discovery in fiat currency and cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    19. Tsung-Yu Hsieh, 2015. "Information disclosure and price manipulation during the pre-closing session: evidence from an order-driven market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4670-4684, September.
    20. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:p:647-663. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.