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The Thursday effect of the forward premium puzzle

Listed author(s):
  • Ding, Liang

This paper examines the day-of-the-week effect for the forward premium puzzle. The paper finds that Thursday consistently appears to be a special day on which the deviation from the unbiasedness hypothesis is much less compared to other weekdays across currencies. In addition to Thursday, Monday is also found to be a similar special day for the Euro. The paper proposes that this Thursday effect (Monday effect for the Euro) is caused by monetary announcements released constantly on Tuesday (Thursday) by the FOMC (the European Central Bank). The paper provides extensive empirical evidence in favor of the proposed explanation.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056011000918
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 302-318

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:21:y:2012:i:1:p:302-318
DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.08.005
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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  1. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Kleshchelski, Isaac & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
  3. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
  4. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  5. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
  6. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
  7. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  8. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  9. Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Does the forward premium anomaly depend on the sample period used or on the sign of the premium?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-25.
  10. Ahn, Dong-Hyun, 2004. "Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 69-102, March.
  11. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
  12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  14. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
  15. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Wohar, Mark E, 1996. "The Road Less Travelled: Institutional Aspects of Data and Their Influence on Empirical Estimates with an Application to Tests of Forward Rate Unbiasedness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 26-38, January.
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