IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v43y2012icp423-433.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do ethanol prices in Brazil follow Brent price and international gasoline price parity?

Author

Listed:
  • Cavalcanti, Marcelo
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Machado, Giovani

Abstract

After the introduction of flexfuel vehicles in Brazil, hydrated ethanol and gasohol (gasoline blended with anhydrous ethanol at an average volumetric proportion of 75:25) became basically perfect substitutes. This paper tests the hypothesis that hydrated ethanol prices follow the price of gasohol in Brazil (opportunity cost of ethanol). In addition it tests the hypothesis that gasoline ex-refinery price variation in Brazil tends to follow the variation in the Brent crude spot price. By testing these two hypotheses simultaneously, this study test a more general hypothesis that expresses the influence of Brent spot prices on hydrated ethanol prices in Brazil (second order effect). Findings indicate that a variation in the Brent spot price does not automatically cause a variation in gasoline ex-refinery prices in Brazil. The best correlation found was between the Brent price fluctuation and the six-month average gasoline ex-refinery price. In case of gasohol and ethanol pump prices, this relation is elastic over the long and short-term in the Brazilian market. However, the short-term elasticity is greater than that over the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalcanti, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani, 2012. "Do ethanol prices in Brazil follow Brent price and international gasoline price parity?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 423-433.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:423-433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.11.034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148111006367
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2011.11.034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Mr. Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies: Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 2007/071, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Marina Di Giacomo & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2009. "Are "Flexible" Taxation Mechanisms Effective in Stabilizing Fuel Prices? An Evaluation Considering the Italian Fuel Markets," Working papers 07, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    3. Chouinard, Hayley & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2004. "Incidence of federal and state gasoline taxes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 55-60, April.
    4. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
    5. John M. Piotrowski & David Coady & Justin Tyson & Rolando Ossowski & Robert Gillingham & Shamsuddin Tareq, 2010. "Petroleum Product Subsidies; Costly, Inequitable, and On the Rise," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/05, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
    7. Paul Davidson, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 110-118.
    8. repec:tur:wpaper:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wu, Jung-Hua & Huang, Yi-Lung & Liu, Chang-Chen, 2011. "Effect of floating pricing policy: An application of system dynamics on oil market after liberalization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4235-4252, July.
    10. Cavalcanti, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani & Arouca, Maurício, 2012. "Taxation of automobile fuels in Brazil: Does ethanol need tax incentives to be competitive and if so, to what extent can they be justified by the balance of GHG emissions?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 9-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    2. Goldemberg, José & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucchesi, Rodrigo, 2014. "Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-70.
    3. Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Meira, Erick & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus, 2022. "The sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil: Exploring the pass-through of international commodity prices to national fuel prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Bessa, Larissa C.B.A. & Ferreira, M.C. & Batista, Eduardo A.C. & Meirelles, Antonio J.A., 2013. "Performance and cost evaluation of a new double-effect integration of multicomponent bioethanol distillation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Archer, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre, 2016. "Can increasing gasoline supply in the United States affect ethanol production in Brazil?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 586-596.
    6. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Rafael Henrique Mainardes Ferreira & Claudia Tania Picinin, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis for characterization of oil production in Brazilian territory," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1945-1974, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    2. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    3. Awan, Obaid A., 2019. "Price discovery or noise: The role of arbitrage and speculation in explaining crude oil price behaviour," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    4. Remzi Uctum & Georges Prat, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03513121, HAL.
    5. Plante, Michael, 2014. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 129-143.
    6. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Analysis Of Energy Subsidies In A Small Open Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1806, October.
    7. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Roberts, Helen & Lont, David H., 2017. "Crude inventory accounting and speculation in the physical oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 508-522.
    8. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2012. "Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Energy: Resources and Markets 122868, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2015. "Does the euro area macroeconomy affect global commodity prices? Evidence from a SVAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 485-503.
    10. World Bank, 2011. "Climate Change and Fiscal Policy : A Report for APEC," World Bank Publications - Reports 2734, The World Bank Group.
    11. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2015. "The role of financial speculation in the energy future markets: A new time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 112-122.
    12. Miroslava Zavadska & Lucía Morales & Joseph Coughlan, 2018. "The Lead–Lag Relationship between Oil Futures and Spot Prices—A Literature Review," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    14. Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Mr. Chadi Abdallah, 2016. "Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through: Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database," IMF Working Papers 2016/254, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Wirl, Franz, 2015. "Output adjusting cartels facing dynamic, convex demand under uncertainty: The case of OPEC," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 307-316.
    16. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "How to ‘Trump’ the energy market: Evidence from the WTI-Brent spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    17. Matteo Manera, Marcella Nicolini, and Ilaria Vignati, 2013. "Financial Speculation in Energy and Agriculture Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    18. Plante, Michael, 2011. "The long-run macroeconomic impacts of fuel subsidies in an oil-importing developing country," MPRA Paper 33823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
    20. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:423-433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.