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Can increasing gasoline supply in the United States affect ethanol production in Brazil?

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  • Archer, Marcelo
  • Szklo, Alexandre

Abstract

The increasing supply of non-conventional oil in the U.S. has changed the dynamics of crude oil market and the flow of oil products in the Atlantic Basin. The Gulf of Mexico (GoM) emerges as an exportation hub of oil products, contributing to a scenario in which gasoline prices tend to decline. Meanwhile, from 2010, the competitiveness of the Brazilian sugarcane ethanol has been ruptured by the country's gasoline price policy that had not followed international price parity. The political conjuncture of the U.S. incites high utilization rates of their refining system in the GoM. In this context the profitability of the ethanol business can be impacted in Brazil, by either the current policy of controlled domestic gasoline prices or a future scenario of declining gasoline international prices. Therefore, this study tests if this gasoline price scenario can compromise even more the competitiveness of the Brazilian ethanol. Particularly, for a scenario of falling prices, ethanol production in Brazil would be under strong pressure of gasoline supply coming from the U.S. This can impact Brazil's ethanol industry, whose development has been justified by climate change policies. In that sense, the paper also discusses the future opportunities and challenges for Brazil's ethanol industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Archer, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre, 2016. "Can increasing gasoline supply in the United States affect ethanol production in Brazil?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 586-596.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:95:y:2016:i:c:p:586-596
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.04.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cavalcanti, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani, 2012. "Do ethanol prices in Brazil follow Brent price and international gasoline price parity?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 423-433.
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    2. de Souza, Lorena Mendes & Mendes, Pietro A.S. & Aranda, Donato A.G., 2018. "Assessing the current scenario of the Brazilian biojet market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 426-438.
    3. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    4. Machado Neto, Pedro Augusto, 2021. "Why Brazil imports so much corn-based ethanol: The role of Brazilian and American ethanol blending mandates," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Rômulo N. Ely & Michael L. Lahr, 2024. "How far should we go to sugarcoat the path to global energy security?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 333(1), pages 361-392, February.
    6. Rafael Henrique Mainardes Ferreira & Claudia Tania Picinin, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis for characterization of oil production in Brazilian territory," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1945-1974, September.

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