Prospects of power-to-sustainable aviation fuel: A multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with economic and environmental assessment

This study presents an integrated economic, environmental, and multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate the feasibility of CO2-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Process simulation is performed for two main configurations, reverse water gas shift and solid oxide co-electrolysis (SOEL), each assessed with and without a steam system. Based on the simulation results, the current unit production cost of SAF is estimated a 3.71–5.72 $ L−1, which is substantially higher than the conventional jet fuel. However, considering projected electrolyzer cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and electricity price decline, the SOEL-based pathway without a steam system in Europe achieves full cost parity by 2050 at an electricity price below 0.0301 $ kWh−1, comparable to the realistic 2050 renewable-electricity price of 0.025 $ kWh−1. The environmental assessment shows that SAF achieves CO2 emissions of 25.5–58.7 gCO2 MJ−1, representing 35–70% reductions compared to conventional jet fuel. The multi-criteria decision analysis highlights the progressive rise in decision priority for SOEL-based SAF, which surpasses conventional jet fuel after 2040 and ranks highest by 2050. Overall, the results clarify that while current SAF remains economically uncompetitive, technological learning and policy incentives can enable cost-effective and carbon-neutral aviation fuel production by 2050.