Review of the historical trends and decarbonization pathways of the civil aviation sector

This study examines the decarbonization pathways and emission trends of the civil aviation sector, highlighting the key technologies and their carbon mitigation potential. From 1980 to 2019, CO2 emissions from civil aviation rose from 400 Mt to over 1000 Mt, although emissions dropped significantly from 2019 to 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Projections indicate a 186 % increase in air passengers by 2050, but in a low-carbon scenario, CO2 emissions are expected to fall by more than 50 %. To achieve deep decarbonization, the sector must implement various strategies, including demand reduction, aircraft technology advancements, fuel substitution, operational optimization, and carbon offsetting. Short-term solutions (before 2030) focus on fuel substitution and operational optimization, contributing over 60 % and 30 % of emission reductions, respectively. Long-term solutions emphasize aircraft technology, accounting for 19.2 % of reductions by 2050. The combined impact of demand reduction and carbon offsetting further enhances carbon mitigation. Even with these measures, aviation emissions will reach 423 Mt by 2050, necessitating actions beyond the sector. Importantly, low-carbon initiatives in civil aviation offer co-benefits for air quality improvement.