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Probabilistic assessment of Spain's 2030 electricity system via Monte Carlo analysis

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  • Álvarez-Piñeiro, Lucas
  • Berna-Escriche, César
  • Blanco-Muelas, David

Abstract

As Spain accelerates its transition toward a renewable-based electricity system, the reliability of policy targets set by the National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC 2023–2030) must be tested against the reality of generation variability, mainly due to weather condition variability and demand uncertainty. This study presents a comprehensive and probabilistic assessment of Spain's 2030 electricity system, utilizing Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) in conjunction with the EnergyPLAN simulation tool. Moving beyond traditional deterministic models, 93 synthetic years of hourly demand and energy generation profiles were obtained through a blockbootstrapping technique informed by historical data from 2016 to 2024.

Suggested Citation

  • Álvarez-Piñeiro, Lucas & Berna-Escriche, César & Blanco-Muelas, David, 2026. "Probabilistic assessment of Spain's 2030 electricity system via Monte Carlo analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:260:y:2026:i:c:s0960148126000297
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2026.125204
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