Modelling and development of utility-scale energy system for Malaysia with advanced energy balance analysis: Supply, demand and trade

This article aims to develop national energy system models for Malaysia for a baseline scenario (2020) and future scenarios towards 2050 based on high temporal resolution data (8784 h) from IEA via the Malaysian Grid System Operator (GSO) and specifications of the future energy mix based on existing energy transition roadmaps. A literature review was conducted on modelling energy systems using various methods to achieve higher renewable energy (RE) integration towards meeting the net zero target in future years. This research demonstrates how the scaling up of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources particularly solar affects the national energy system in terms of the hourly generation patterns of central power plants and hydropower to match the hourly demand. The gradual scaling up of solar and phasing out of coal from 2020 to 2050 result in challenges that may be faced with the projected rise in fuel and electricity demands. There will be challenges in matching the growing demand as solar PV has much lower capacity factors of generation compared to coal. Therefore, five scenarios were analysed to study if the installed capacities can match the growing demand for energy by integrating energy storage systems (ESS) with upgrading transmission line capacity from 2035 onwards as specified in the Malaysian Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER) and the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Annual hourly electricity balance analysis was carried out for each scenario to understand the generation pattern of central power plants and their relationship with (VRE) to meet the respective electricity demands. Based on the 2050 models, the total ESS was increased in capacity from 500 MW (2.5 GWh) in scenario 3–22000 MW (110 GWh) in scenario 4 to curb the critical access energy production (CEEP) resulting from high penetration of peak solar PV power and the transmission line capacity was upscaled to 22000 MW to enable external imports to supply electricity to meet the demands during low periods of solar PV penetration. Scenario 5 was developed to investigate the implementation of energy efficiency (22 % electricity demand reduction) on scenario 4 to reduce ESS sizing, natural gas power plant generation, and imports in 2050. The CEEP was curbed to 0 for all hours in a year with the 22000 MW transmission line for import/export and a downsized ESS system of 750 MW (3.75 GWh). The annual total CO2 emissions from the electricity sectors in scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 75.96 Mt, 85.04 Mt, 51.42 Mt, 51.42 Mt, and 40.17 Mt respectively. This demonstrated the potential for CO2 emission reduction from the electricity generation sector of Malaysia in transitioning towards a low-carbon power mix.