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Assessing the impact of photovoltaic system construction on the green environment in China: An interpretable machine learning approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wan, Wenqiang
  • Zhang, Xinmin
  • Sun, Zhongyi
  • Zhou, Xiao
  • He, Yafen
  • Lv, Tiangui
  • Hou, Hao

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) energy has been significantly utilized in China and plays an important role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and fulfilling energy needs. However, its rapid development may result in negative impacts on the green environment. In this study, we assessed the positive and negative impacts of PV construction on the green environment in China from 2012 to 2022. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to represent the green environment and conducted an analysis from the perspectives of PV construction areas (CAs) and the surrounding impact areas (SIAs). Via the use of a temporal framework covering the preconstruction, construction, and postconstruction periods, we analyzed the changes in the green environment in the CAs and SIAs across different geographical divisions, as well as the differences among land cover types. Furthermore, we employed the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to reveal the factors influencing changes in the green environment. The results indicated that (1) from 2012 to 2022, 53.25% of the PV systems had a positive impact on the green environment. Notably, Northwest China exhibited significant improvement, whereas East China and Central China exhibited severe degradation, and the extent of impact in the SIAs decreased with increasing distance from CAs. (2) The green environment deteriorated during the preconstruction period, followed by a continued reduction during the construction period (2016–2017) and an improvement within one year after construction (2017–2018), and ultimately, general enhancement was noted during the postconstruction period. (3) PV systems occupied 35.15% of grasslands and 30.17% of croplands. During the preconstruction and construction periods, the green environment in grassland and cropland areas deteriorated notably. Conversely, barren land exhibited the most substantial recovery during the postconstruction period and demonstrated a significant improvement in the green environment across all periods. (4) Climatic factors contributed the most to changes in the green environment, and their impacts in the SIAs intensified with increasing distance from CAs. GST and PRE were the most important factors in the CAs, but the importance of GST significantly decreased in the SIAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Wenqiang & Zhang, Xinmin & Sun, Zhongyi & Zhou, Xiao & He, Yafen & Lv, Tiangui & Hou, Hao, 2026. "Assessing the impact of photovoltaic system construction on the green environment in China: An interpretable machine learning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PE).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:256:y:2026:i:pe:s0960148125017847
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.124120
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