IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v219y2023ip1s0960148123013290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis and modeling of seasonal characteristics of renewable energy generation

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Haiyang
  • Du, Ershun
  • He, Boyu
  • Zhang, Ning
  • Wang, Peng
  • Li, Fuqiang
  • Ji, Jie

Abstract

The increasing penetration of renewable energy leads to seasonal fluctuation in the power system. This also results in continuous low-renewable-output events, which pose significant challenges for ensuring adequate renewable energy supply and arouse growing concern. To analyze the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of renewable in different timescales, this paper first decomposes the renewable time series into three components: climate, seasonal, and daily. Then an Itô process is introduced to model the climate and daily components considering the time series’ stochastic characteristics and time correlations. Finally, the proposed model is first tested based on case studies on historical data from two selected weather stations in China. Moreover, the method is further applied to analyzing data from 253 weather stations across China at the provincial level. The results indicate that low-renewable-output events are more likely to have a longer duration in central China.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Haiyang & Du, Ershun & He, Boyu & Zhang, Ning & Wang, Peng & Li, Fuqiang & Ji, Jie, 2023. "Analysis and modeling of seasonal characteristics of renewable energy generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:219:y:2023:i:p1:s0960148123013290
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.119414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148123013290
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heide, Dominik & von Bremen, Lueder & Greiner, Martin & Hoffmann, Clemens & Speckmann, Markus & Bofinger, Stefan, 2010. "Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2483-2489.
    2. Gangopadhyay, A. & Seshadri, A.K. & Sparks, N.J. & Toumi, R., 2022. "The role of wind-solar hybrid plants in mitigating renewable energy-droughts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 926-937.
    3. Julian D. Hunt & Edward Byers & Yoshihide Wada & Simon Parkinson & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Simon Langan & Detlef P. Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2020. "Global resource potential of seasonal pumped hydropower storage for energy and water storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Verdejo, Humberto & Awerkin, Almendra & Saavedra, Eugenio & Kliemann, Wolfgang & Vargas, Luis, 2016. "Stochastic modeling to represent wind power generation and demand in electric power system based on real data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 283-295.
    5. Ohlendorf, Nils & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2020. "Frequency and duration of low-wind-power events in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(8).
    6. Sebastian Sterl & Dalia Fadly & Stefan Liersch & Hagen Koch & Wim Thiery, 2021. "Linking solar and wind power in eastern Africa with operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 407-418, April.
    7. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    8. Aguiar, L. Mazorra & Pereira, B. & Lauret, P. & Díaz, F. & David, M., 2016. "Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 599-610.
    9. Otero, Noelia & Martius, Olivia & Allen, Sam & Bloomfield, Hannah & Schaefli, Bettina, 2022. "A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 667-677.
    10. Bett, Philip E. & Thornton, Hazel E., 2016. "The climatological relationships between wind and solar energy supply in Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 96-110.
    11. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2022. "STR: Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Using Regression," INFORMS Joural on Data Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-62, April.
    12. Zhenyu Zhuo & Ershun Du & Ning Zhang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xi Lu & Jinyu Xiao & Jiawei Wu & Chongqing Kang, 2022. "Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zhang, Jinjun & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Analyze the environmental sustainability factors of China: The role of fossil fuel energy and renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 390-402.
    14. Raynaud, D. & Hingray, B. & François, B. & Creutin, J.D., 2018. "Energy droughts from variable renewable energy sources in European climates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 578-589.
    15. Ali, Sajid & Lee, Sang-Moon & Jang, Choon-Man, 2018. "Statistical analysis of wind characteristics using Weibull and Rayleigh distributions in Deokjeok-do Island – Incheon, South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 652-663.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xuemei & Shi, Yansong & Zhao, Yufeng & Wu, Yajie & Zhou, Shiwei, 2024. "Seasonal waste, geotherm, nuclear, wood net power generations forecasting using a novel hybrid grey model with seasonally buffered and time-varying effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allen, Sam & Otero, Noelia, 2023. "Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Bracken, Cameron & Voisin, Nathalie & Burleyson, Casey D. & Campbell, Allison M. & Hou, Z. Jason & Broman, Daniel, 2024. "Standardized benchmark of historical compound wind and solar energy droughts across the Continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Potisomporn, Panit & Adcock, Thomas A.A. & Vogel, Christopher R., 2024. "Extreme value analysis of wind droughts in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Alexis Tantet & Marc Stéfanon & Philippe Drobinski & Jordi Badosa & Silvia Concettini & Anna Cretì & Claudia D’Ambrosio & Dimitri Thomopulos & Peter Tankov, 2019. "e 4 clim 1.0: The Energy for a Climate Integrated Model: Description and Application to Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-37, November.
    5. François, B. & Puspitarini, H.D. & Volpi, E. & Borga, M., 2022. "Statistical analysis of electricity supply deficits from renewable energy sources across an Alpine transect," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1200-1212.
    6. Plain, N. & Hingray, B. & Mathy, S., 2019. "Accounting for low solar resource days to size 100% solar microgrids power systems in Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 448-458.
    7. Dujardin, Jérôme & Kahl, Annelen & Kruyt, Bert & Bartlett, Stuart & Lehning, Michael, 2017. "Interplay between photovoltaic, wind energy and storage hydropower in a fully renewable Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 513-525.
    8. Otero, Noelia & Martius, Olivia & Allen, Sam & Bloomfield, Hannah & Schaefli, Bettina, 2022. "A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 667-677.
    9. Ian M. Trotter & Torjus F. Bolkesj{o} & Eirik O. J{aa}stad & Jon Gustav Kirkerud, 2021. "Increased Electrification of Heating and Weather Risk in the Nordic Power System," Papers 2112.02893, arXiv.org.
    10. Alexander Kies & Bruno U. Schyska & Lueder Von Bremen, 2016. "The Demand Side Management Potential to Balance a Highly Renewable European Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Onodera, Hiroaki & Delage, Rémi & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2024. "The role of regional renewable energy integration in electricity decarbonization—A case study of Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    12. Chen, Qi & Kuang, Zhonghong & Liu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Tao, 2022. "Energy storage to solve the diurnal, weekly, and seasonal mismatch and achieve zero-carbon electricity consumption in buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    13. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    14. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    15. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    16. Bett, Philip E. & Thornton, Hazel E., 2016. "The climatological relationships between wind and solar energy supply in Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 96-110.
    17. Kapica, Jacek & Jurasz, Jakub & Canales, Fausto A. & Bloomfield, Hannah & Guezgouz, Mohammed & De Felice, Matteo & Zbigniew, Kobus, 2024. "The potential impact of climate change on European renewable energy droughts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    18. António Couto & Paula Costa & Teresa Simões, 2021. "Identification of Extreme Wind Events Using a Weather Type Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Vázquez, Rubén & Cabos, William & Nieto-Borge, José Carlos & Gutiérrez, Claudia, 2024. "Complementarity of offshore energy resources on the Spanish coasts: Wind, wave, and photovoltaic energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    20. Handriyanti Diah Puspitarini & Baptiste François & Marco Baratieri & Casey Brown & Mattia Zaramella & Marco Borga, 2020. "Complementarity between Combined Heat and Power Systems, Solar PV and Hydropower at a District Level: Sensitivity to Climate Characteristics along an Alpine Transect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:219:y:2023:i:p1:s0960148123013290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.